06-24-1985 Council Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

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INTRODUCTION The Metropolitan Council forecasts show continued gains in the number of people, jobs and households in the Twin Cities Area through 1990 and 2000. These preliminary forecasts are part of the update of the Metropolitan Development Framework, the Council"s plan for orderly and economic change in the region. The plan refers specifically to growth in regional facilities that the Council oversees, such as sewers, transportation, parks and airports. Generally, the higher the forecast numbers, the greater she demand on regional facilities. The Council will .use the forecasts to plan for expected demands on regional facilities and other services including health, aging and solid waste. Regional commissions use the forecasts to desigr and stage their projects. Local communities use them to guide planning for local growth and development. The Council projected the following increases for the region by 1990: 17 percent in households, 9 percent in population and 21 percent in employment. This is slightly above the population growth rate during the 1970s, but not as high as the rates of the 1950s and 1960s. The forecasted growth rate for households and employment is down slightly from growth in the 1970s. Growth is expected to continue from 1990 to 2000 at a slightly lower rate than forecasted for the 1980s. REGIONAL FORECASTS Population and employment forecasts* were done separately and then compared. The demographically based forecasts used the cohort survival method. Regional employment forecasts resulted from a regression analysis comparing local and national trends. The demographic method yielded population, household and labor force forecasts. The labor force and employment forecasts were compared to ensure compatability between them. The regional forecasts are shown below. Year Households Population Employment 1970 573,834 1,874,612 853,000 1980 721,444 1,985,873 1,075,000 1990 845,000 ?,"60,000 1,300,000 2000 910,000 2,260,000 1,400,000 FORECASTS FOR CITIES AND TOWNSHIPS Growth occurs throughout the region. In most i�istances, change can be under- stood by examining local trends. In the suburbs, it is easy to spot; whole subdivisions and new office buildings appear in a short time. Construction goes on in most communities during every economic recovery, even in some areas that have been stable for years. In a few areas, growth trends run counter to these economic cycles. Business expansion even occurs during recessions. In turn, that causes construction in some areas during periods of general decline. In the older, more developed areas, growth occurs in buildirgs left *A description of these forecasting methods follows the tables.