06-24-1985 Council Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

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by firms expanding to the suburbs or in buildings where other firms went out of business. Office buildings and apartments replace single-family housing. Industrial parks fill up and shopping centers try new marketing strategies and tenant mixes. The forecast for each area considers the dispersed nature of change, as well as regional and national trends. Each minor civil division (MCD) was independently forecasted. These MCD forecasts were totaled and compared to the regional forecasts. Individual community forecasts were adjusted so that the total of MCD's would equal the regional forecast. This method reflects the regional forecasts, as well as changes in rural areas, developing suburbs, older suburbs and the central cities. The region exhibits two interesting housing characteristics. Housing activity has been about equal each year since 1970 on either side of a line drawn along Highway 12. If one divides the region approximately along Highway 65, the west side of the region has twice as much housing construction annually as the east. The forecasts reflect these ratios. In each MCD, the procedure followed was to forecast households first, then population and finally employment. Close examination of recent trends helped determine each city's or township's forecast. For example, the household change was examined from the 1970 to the 1980 Census. Annual residential building permits furnished another indicator of change. The permits showed the types of housing units constructed each year between 1970 and 1984. Finally, growth limitations were examined; for example, additional land supply and zoning restrictions. Information about these factors came from local plans and contacts with local planners. CONCLUSION The tables that follow show the preliminary forecasts. They may be revised after city officials and others examine them. Later this year. the forecasts will be adopted by the Council as part of the Metropolitan Development Framework. A more detailed discussion of the MCD household, population and employment forecast methodology follows the tables.