11-25-2013 Council Work Session Packet

Home Browse Search

MEMORANDUM TO: MAYOR AND COUNCIL MEMBERS FROM: ORONO MANAGEMENTTEAM SUBIECT: INFORMATION UPDATE DATE: NOVEMBER 1, 2013 Information Update—11/01/13 • In response to questions from Council regarding the Lakeview Golf development review process, the attached information is provided to assist Council in responding to resident questions and prepare for the November 12 meeting. • On Wednesday Lili, Jessica and Mike attended a Met Council workshop regarding preliminary population, household and employment forecasts as part of the Thrive MSP 2040 initiative. Thrive MSP 2040 is the Twin Cities region's long-range planning effort intended to provide a regional vision for the 7-county metropolitan area for the next 25-30 years. It will provide a basis for the Systems Statements that will be distributed in 2015 to each city, defining what needs to be addressed in the mandated 2018 Comp Plan Updates. The preliminary farecasts are Met Council's ongoing attempt to reflect expectations of future growth and development. The workshop was an opportunity for local government representatives to review the forecasting process, ask questions, and learn what steps to take if the forecasts seem too high or too low. Forecast numbers for year 2040 were provided to each metro city. For Orono, Met Council is forecasting a 2040 population of 10,100 persons, an increase of 36%from the 2010 census population count of 7,437 persons. The 2010 census indicated Orono had 2,826 households, or 2.63 persons per household (pph). Met Council is forecasting 4,400 households in Orono in 2040 ( a 55% increase over 2010), or 2.30 pph. Our 2008-2030 CMP anticipated that household size would decrease over time due to 1) our aging population, and 2) an increasing proportion of future new development being life-cycle housing types at higher densities. However, the numbers Met Council is forecasting for 2040 appear to be somewhat high based on our previous assumptions regarding development numbers and types between now and 2030. It turns out that a number of inetro cities at the workshop share this same concern, that Met Council's forecasts appear to be unrealistic, based on a `demand' model rather than the realities of`supply', i.e. availability of land for development. Staff has a basic concern that if the Met Council forecasts become mandates for planning, we will be in the same boat we were in during the last Comp Plan Update process— reguiding new areas for higher density. We have an opportunity to work with Met Council staff over the coming weeks to provide an analysis of our expected development capacity based on current guiding, zoning, and developable land availability. Staff will be in contact with Met Council representatives to make our case by December 1. Updated forecasts are anticipated to be presented to the Met Counci) in the Spring of 2014.