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08-22-2016 Council Packet
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08-22-2016 Council Packet
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12/16/2016 3:59 PM
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https://www.researchgate.net/publication/238322365_Social_Change_and_Crime_Rate_Trends_A_Routine_Activity_Approach?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-54148198fb163d29619a54343bc6e06a-XXX&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI0MDgyMjA3MTtBUzozMTI3NTQ3MjI4MDM3MTJAMTQ1MTU3Nzk0NDExNw==
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https://www.researchgate.net/publication/238322365_Social_Change_and_Crime_Rate_Trends_A_Routine_Activity_Approach?el=1_x_8&enrichId=rgreq-54148198fb163d29619a54343bc6e06a-XXX&enrichSource=Y292ZXJQYWdlOzI0MDgyMjA3MTtBUzozMTI3NTQ3MjI4MDM3MTJAMTQ1MTU3Nzk0NDExNw==
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30 • Justice Research and Policy <br />*Discussion <br />Routine activities theory proposes that crime occurs when motivated offenders, <br />potential victims, and the absence of capable guardians merge in time and space. <br />Our analysis of sex offenders and their potential targets in one Arkansas county <br />showed a substantial overlap between those convicted of sex offenses (motivated <br />offenders) and children who may be likely targets (potential victims). Some of <br />the reason for this overlap is no doubt the purposeful actions of the offenders. <br />Our results can be explained using the analogy of a regression model. Certainly <br />not all child sex offenders purposefully move to be close to a school or day care. <br />Part of the variation in where child sex offenders choose to live, therefore, is <br />explained in terms of market conditions, in the inability or apathy on the part of <br />the neighborhood to keep the sex offenders out, and for other reasons. Part of <br />the variation in the residency patterns of child sex offenders, though, is no doubt <br />attributable to them putting themselves in close proximity to potential targets, <br />perhaps in hopes that their routine activities will overlap with the routine activi- <br />ties of potential victims. <br />Like the work of Cohen and Felson (1979), this research was particularly <br />concerned with direct-contact predatory violations. A primary reason for the <br />seriousness of sex crimes is that they represent physical attacks on the person. If, <br />as Cohen and Felson (p. 595) argue, “target suitability influences the occurrence <br />of direct-contact predatory violations,” then the location of potential targets and <br />the proximity of potential offenders is of interest. Any changes in the environ- <br />ment or activities of criminal behavior that can control predatory behavior should <br />certainly be a concern for policymakers. <br />Cohen and Felson (1979) also argue that increases in one of the three ele- <br />ments that change routine activity patterns can increase the crime rate, regard- <br />less of changes in the other elements. Furthermore, an increase may have a mul- <br />tiplicative rather than an additive affect—that is, a small increase in the number <br />of offenders who are seeking to target potential victims may produce an increase <br />in the crime rate much larger than the increase in the number of offenders. If that <br />is true, then a change in the number of child sex offenders living in close proxim- <br />ity to potential targets deserves attention. <br />In this research, we have attempted to establish that two of the elements of <br />routine activities theory may be present in direct-contact predatory violations of <br />child sex offenders. We argue that some child sex offenders will seek out suitable <br />targets. When they find areas with one or more day cares, schools, or parks, they <br />may seek residence there. A high number of child sex offenders living in a par- <br />ticular area may signal that they are purposefully living there because of easy <br />access to potential victims.
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