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2024 Hennepin County All -Jurisdiction Hazard Mitigation Plan <br />Volume 2 — Hazard Inventory <br />GRAPHIC 4.3.5D Lightning Fatalities <br />4.3.5.8. Future Trends Ble <br />Some studies have shown changes in lightning associated with seasonal or year-to-year variations in <br />temperature, but there have not been any reliable studies conducted to indicate future trends of <br />occurrence until recently. A study looked at two variables, precipitation, and cloud buoyancy and how <br />they might be a predictor of lightning (see more in the indications and forecasting section for predicting <br />and forecasting lightning). The scientists found that on average, climate models predict a 12 percent rise <br />in cloud -to -ground lightning strikes per temperature degree increase in the contiguous U.S. This is roughly <br />a 50 percent increase by year 2100 if earth continues to see the expected seven -degree Fahrenheit <br />increase in temperature. While this is a step into looking into the future trends of lightning as our climate <br />continues to change, less is known about the exact locations on where strikes will increase. <br />4.3.5.9. Indications and Forecasting <br />"Lightning is caused by the charge separation within clouds, and to maximize separation, you have to lift <br />more water vapor and heavy ice particles into the atmosphere" (Romps, 2014). It is known that the faster <br />the updrafts, the more lighting, in addition, the more precipitation, the more lighting. Howfast the updraft <br />of the convective clouds is determined by the convective available potential energy (CAPE) which is <br />measured by radiosondes, balloon -borne instruments, released by each weather forecast office (WFO) <br />114 <br />