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<br />The results of these changes on the Twin Cities region and on Orono are
<br />significant. Orono's ultimate population projections have been dropping from
<br />estimates of 37,000 made in 1970, to 23.000 in 1972, to 14,000 in 1974, to the
<br />Metropolitan Council's most recent figure projection of 11.000 made in 1979.
<br />Population trends durme the last 20 years and a careful analysis of development
<br />capabilities of remaining land as compared to Orono's current zoninu, suggest an
<br />ultimate oooulatiL ti of around 9,400. This figure is verv- close to our existing
<br />estimated population of 7.300 7,800 . and is still probably potentially high
<br />considering the new ener gy pro blems and our recent growth trends,—The 11,000
<br />populati on projection and would be easily obtainable within our existing land use
<br />planning and zoning densities.
<br />ORONO POPULATION PROJECTIONS (November 1999)
<br />Population Forecasts
<br />Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Saturation
<br />Urban Area (1/2 & I ac.)4,160 3,995 4,135 4,115 4,95C 4,900 4,925
<br />Rural Area (2 & 5 ac.)2,627 2,850
<br />3,150 3,685 4,100 4,400 4,450
<br />Total Cit}'6,787 6,845
<br />7,285 7,800 9,050 9,300 9375
<br />Occupied Household Forecasts*
<br />Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Saturation
<br />Urban Area (1/2 & 1 ac.)1,316 1,337 1,483
<br />1,491 1,900 1,950 1,975
<br />Rural Area (2 & 5 ac.)830 954 1,130 1,335 1,500 1,750 1,775
<br />Total Cit>' %2,146 2,291 2,613 2,826 3,400 3,700 3,750
<br />Sources: U.S. Census; Metropolitan Council forecasts; City records and forecasts.
<br />*Docs not include vacant dwelling units
<br />This decline is consistent with the general decline in birth rate and population
<br />projections for the region as a whole, as, well as a realization that a population
<br />shift is occuring which will see renewed growih of the central cities and inner-ring
<br />suburbs. (?)
<br />Hie projected population is in line with Orono's rural land u.se preservation
<br />policies and with the proposed public facilities plans of Orono. the State
<br />Department of Trimsportation and the Metropolitan V\’aste Control Commission.
<br />CMP 4A - b
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