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04-09-2018 Council Work Session Packet
Orono City Council & Planning Commission Special Joint Work Session Monday, April 9, 2018 Council Chambers 5:00 p.m. 1. Navarre Area Plan Review Annual: • Budget: Part of June, All of July, August and October. • City Administrator & Police Chief Update (3 times per year for 15 minutes) Previous Work Session Topics March 20. 2018 • Planning Commission Interviews • Purchasing and Land Acquisition Policy Discussion • Met Council Overreach Discussion • Street Improvement District Discussion February 26, 2018 • Orono Schools Event Update • Hiring & Training Standards • Trails — Maintenance of Dakota Trail January 22, 2018 • Short Term Rental Regulation CITY OF ORONO MEMORANDUM DATE: March 20, 2018 TO: Mayor Walsh, City Council Members Planning Commissioners Navarre PAC Members Dustin Rief, City Administrator FROM: Jeremy Barnhart, AICP, Community Development Director RE: Navarre Areal Plan Workshop Eric Zweber, WSB and Associates will present the final report for the Navarre Area small area Plan at a workshop on April 9th. The report itself is included and was also shared with members separately to allow additional time to review. Ultimately, the report will be incorporated into the Comprehensive Plan prior to public review starting in May. Introduction......................................................................................................................................2 Overviewof Process.................................................................................................................... 2 PreviousPlanning Studies...........................................................................................................2 Navarre Moratorium / DSU Study — 2006................................................................................. 3 Comprehensive Plan Discussion — 2010.................................................................................. 3 Navarre Community Initiative — 2011........................................................................................ 3 Hennepin County / Community Design Group — Hennepin County Pedestrian Plan 2012......3 City of Orono / Hennepin County — Street Light and Sidewalk Improvements — 2013 .............4 Blue Cross Blue Shield Minnesota — Navarre Demonstration Project 2014-2015 ...................4 Interaction with Lake Minnetonka....................................................................................................5 LakeInteraction Opportunities.....................................................................................................5 Future Development.............................................................................. 5 Market Study Considerations.......................................................... ................................................ 5 CommercialMarket......................................................... ..... ...`.......................................6 ResidentialMarket................................................................................................. 7 Other Uses Considered ......................................... ...... 7 Transportation Improvements ............................... ..............................................................7 Improvements to County Road Intersection.....:�...................................................................7 ArterialCapacity...........................................................................................................................8 Trail to Businesses Connection ......... .. ...` ...............................................................................9 Shadywood Trail Connection.. Q........................................................................................ 9 CommunityEvents........................................................................................................................... 9 Existing Single -Family Housing.....................................................................................................10 Implementation...............................................................................................................................10 Interaction with Lake Minnetonka..............................................................................................10 FutureDevelopment...................................................................................................................10 Transportation Improvements....................................................................................................11 ShadywoodTrail Connection.....................................................................................................11 CommunityEvents.....................................................................................................................11 TearDowns................................................................................................................................12 LIST OF APPENDICES Market Study Public Engagement Traffic Information Page 1 Navarre Small Area Plan I _ Introduction Overview of Process The Navarre Small Area Plan process began in the Fall of 2017. The Navarre area is generally located at the intersection of County Roads 19 (Shoreline Drive) and 15 (Shadywood Road). The study area (Figure 1) includes the residential area north of Shoreline Drive, south of Crystal Place, west of Bayview Place, east of the city limits, and the commercial areas along Shoreline and Shadywood Road. The Navarre area represents Orono's historic town center. A number of planning initiatives have been done for the area over the last twenty years, however, have not been fully acted on. The intent of this plan is to develop a vision for the area to guide policy and investment decisions. The process began with a consultation with the City Council on Monday, September 11, 2017, to discuss the issues that would be evaluated as part of the plan, including: • Explore expanding the Navarre neighborhood to touch and interact with Lake Minnetonka • Develop strategies that can build on the success of the Dakota Rail Trail. • Encourage trail users to be customers of the Navarre businesses. • Examine and determine the commercial and multi -family markets for Navarre and the surrounding area to determine the appropriate development opportunities. • Design guidelines, zoning tools, and/or regulations for the remodels and tear -downs of the existing single-family homes. • Engage the residents, business owners, and elected officials to determine the feasibility of any redevelopment strategies. • Create clear redevelopment strategies for implementation. A Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) made up of fourteen Navarre area stakeholders was selected by the City Council to help guide the planning process around these topics. The first meeting of the PAC took place on Thursday, October 19, 2017 and included an overview of past planning studies and included a SWOT analysis discussion about the Navarre area. A community open house was held on Thursday, November 16, 2017 at the Long Lake Fire Station #2. The open house included several interactive activities aimed at getting feedback about what people want to see in Navarre and what they would like to change. An online engagement tool, Social Pinpoint, was also utilized to gather feedback. Social Pinpoint allowed participants to identify areas in the neighborhood where there are issues and to identify things they would like to see. Several survey questions were also collected using Social Pinpoint. Following the community open house and gathering responses from Social Pinpoint, a PAC meeting was held on Thursday, January 11, 2018 to present the findings from the community engagement. The discussion focused on the seven key issues presented to the City Council and a direction forward on each issue was determined. The draft report of this small area plan was presented to the PAC on Thursday, March 8 and to the City Council and the Planning Commission during a joint Work Session on April 9, 2018. The Navarre Small Area Plan was incorporated as part of the 2040 Comprehensive Plan update, which was adopted on Previous Planning Studies Several planning initiatives have been undertaken for the Navarre area in recent history. The following information provides an overview of those studies since 2006 to provide context for this small area plan process. Page 2 Navarre Moratorium / DSU Studv — 2006 In July of 2005, the City Council imposed a moratorium on development applications for the Navarre commercial area with the intent to study the area and develop a framework to guide future investment. The City enlisted the services of Dahlgren, Shardlow, and Uban (DSU) to provide an analysis of the existing conditions and to conduct a workshop with business and property owners and surrounding neighbors to present an analysis of existing conditions, explain the City Council's objectives, and facilitate a discussion about the future of the area. The discussion included a SWOT analysis of the Navarre area. Approximately 75 members of the public were in attendance. A narrative summarizing the outcomes of the workshop identified three objectives for the area: 1. Preserve the small-town atmosphere of Navarre 2. Creation of community area around the lakeshore 3. Encourage a functional, thriving business district DSU also conducted a joint City Council and Planning Commission meeting to present the workshop findings and assist the City in determining next steps for planning to support reinvestment in the Navarre area. This included a presentation of concept renderings depicting various improvements within the public right-of-way, including pedestrian amenities such as decorative sidewalk, seating areas, public art, enhanced landscaping, and signage. One concept explored the possibility of a roundabout at the intersection of Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road. Comprehensive Plan Discussion — 2010 In 2010, following the completion of the City's comprehensive plan, City staff and the City Council discussed options for updating the City's zoning map and ordinances for properties guided for higher density or mixed use. In the case of Navarre, the discussion included the possibility of developing a Mixed -Use Overlay District; however, this was never implemented. Navarre Community Initiative — 2011 The Navarre Community Initiative (NCI) is a group formed in late 2011 made up of residents and business owners of the Navarre area intended to provide input to the City Council regarding potential improvements for the area. In addition, the intent of the group is to enhance Navarre's quality of life with special emphasis on public safety, beautification, and preservation. The group's work includes defining short-term and long-term projects and enlisting the support of a variety of community partners to assist in their implementation. A City staff member serves as a liaison to the committee for communication purposes between the committee and City Council. In early 2012, NCI and the City sent a letter and questionnaire to Navarre businesses soliciting their thoughts and ideas for the area. Out of 58 questionnaires, only six responses were received. In the spring of 2012, NCI presented a petition to Navarre residents, which read "Agreeing with concerns that current traffic conditions in Navarre are a clear and present danger, I support safety improvements that affect pedestrians, bikers and autos as the number one priority in our Navarre community." The petition received approximately 200 signatures On July 16, 2012, members of NCI, city staff, and the Mayor conducted a walking tour of Navarre to identify issues and opportunities for the neighborhood. Hennepin County / Community Design Group — Hennepin County Pedestrian Plan 2012 On August 28, 2012, a group meeting was held at the Freshwater Institute as part of a series of meetings conducted by Hennepin County and Community Design Group to gather local input regarding the Hennepin County pedestrian plan and to identify issues with safe walking along county roads. Approximately 50 participants attended the meeting. The outcome of this process Page 3 was a final plan that seeks to improve conditions for walking in Hennepin County so that it can become a safer, more convenient, and more enjoyable transportation choice. City of Orono / Hennepin County — Street Light and Sidewalk Improvements — 2013 The City of Orono held a series of meetings to gather input from residents and businesses regarding future planning for Navarre. Meetings took place on February 11, April 8 and June 10, 2013 at Orono City Hall. Meetings included updates on recent activities regarding Navarre as well as review of street lighting options under consideration and discussion of sidewalk issues. Hennepin County Transportation Department staff were also involved in the process to discuss potential pedestrian and traffic safety improvements currently being studied. A survey was developed that allowed residents to comment on proposed street light alternatives. Following the public participation process, the City completed a streetlight and sidewalk improvement project in the summer of 2014. In addition, Hennepin County revised their striping plan for the crosswalks in response to recommendations from the City and residents at the June 10 meeting. There were approximately 40 attendees at the February 11 meeting, 35 attendees at the April 8 meeting, and 20 attendees at the June 10 meeting. Blue Cross Blue Shield Minnesota — Navarre Demonstration Project 2014-2015 In collaboration with Blue Cross Blue Shield Minnesota, the City held two open house meetings with Navarre residents and businesses to develop ideas for a potential Active Living Demonstration project. Demonstration projects are short-term projects or pop-up events intended to show what potential permanent improvements could look like. The City held the meetings to gather feedback on what issues could be addressed as part of the demonstration project. Objectives identified as part of the meetings included traffic calming and making the area more pedestrian friendly. Ideas for projects included bringing in temporary boulevard trees, improving trail connections to businesses, and providing community gathering spaces. The City had planned to seek grant funds from Blue Cross Blue Shield Minnesota for the demonstration project; however, due to the timing of the resignation of the City's Community Development Director, a grant application was not completed by the City. The NCI agreed to go forward with a scaled back version of some of the projects. Page 4 Int Navarre Study Area Map — Figure 1 Lake Interaction Opportunities One of the key issues identified for this study was whether the Navarre neighborhood can be expanded to touch and interact with Lake Minnetonka. Few opportunities exist to physically connect with the lake based on the Navarre boundaries shown in Figure 1. The most logical location to provide any sort of connection would be along the south side of Shoreline Drive between Carman Street and Kelly Avenue. The PAC identified this area as possible opportunity to connect with Lake Minnetonka. Should any of these properties redevelop in the future, it is possible that development could occur in a way that provides views of the lake. Through the community engagement process, feedback was received that was overwhelmingly opposed to any active lake access, such as a public launch, in this location. Environmental concerns were cited as the primary reasons. Therefore, connections with the lake in this area should be passive and limited to views and opportunities to walk or sit near the lakeshore. If development is proposed in the future, the city should work with developers to create a public space near the lakeshore, where appropriate. When redevelopment opportunities along the Lake present themselves, the City should consider if those redevelopment could provide a possible connection for the Navarre neighborhood with Lake during the redevelopment. Future Development Market Study Considerations Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC was hired to conduct a market study to evaluate potential development opportunities in the Navarre area. The entire market study is attached to this report as Appendix A. The scope included a review of key demographic trends, assessment of current market conditions for housing, and analysis of the current commercial market in the Lake Minnetonka area. The study identifies seven potential redevelopment areas and describes the potential land uses that could result. These land uses are an indication of what the market would support but do not Page 5 necessarily represent the desires of the neighborhood. The seven redevelopment areas are identified in Figure 2. The study finds that many of the properties could accommodate a variety of different land uses given their location, access, and surrounding land uses. Recommended uses based on market demand include retail, for -sale townhomes, for -sale condominiums, senior housing, and rental housing. Market Study Map — Figure 2 Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC Commercial Market The market study finds that Navarre and the greater Lake Minnetonka area is under -retailed. An opportunity exists to attract additional retail businesses to the Navarre area along Shoreline Drive or Shadywood Road. The market study identifies Sites #4 and #5 (see Table 29 above) as being the most attractive to retail tenants. Attracting additional retail businesses to Navarre would also Page 6 TABLE 29 SUMMARY OF REDEVELOPMENT SITE POTENTIAL USES 1 3.66 x x 2 4.58 x x 3 1.86 x x 4 2.60 x x x x 5 6.78 x x x x 6 2.22 x x 7 2.63 x x x Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC Commercial Market The market study finds that Navarre and the greater Lake Minnetonka area is under -retailed. An opportunity exists to attract additional retail businesses to the Navarre area along Shoreline Drive or Shadywood Road. The market study identifies Sites #4 and #5 (see Table 29 above) as being the most attractive to retail tenants. Attracting additional retail businesses to Navarre would also Page 6 be consistent with feedback received through the community engagement process, as the neighborhood desires a more robust commercial district with places to go. There is currently no market for speculative office development. Build -to -suit office development may occur for specific businesses but those decisions on site attractiveness would consider different factors than considered in this market study. Residential Market In looking at the market -supported residential uses, for -sale townhomes would likely only be supported on Site #2, due to higher land costs on the other sites. Mid -rise for -sale condominiums and rental housing could likely be supported on all of the sites. Residential densities for multi- family housing in third -tier suburbs, such as Orono, are generally in the 25 to 40 units an acre range. Increasing the number of residential units near the intersection of Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road would likely increase the potential for greater pedestrian traffic and provide support for additional retail businesses. Higher residential densities also help to justify public investment in pedestrian infrastructure such as enhanced pavement, lighting, benches, decorations and landscaping. Mixed responses were received regarding the desire for higher residential density in Navarre; however, there was overwhelming support for pedestrian improvements and additional retail businesses and places to go. Generally, higher residential densities are required to justify spending on pedestrian improvements and to attract additional retail businesses. Navarre will need to consider these tradeoffs carefully when reviewing future proposals for higher density residential housing. Other Uses Considered The market for hospitality has been oversaturated and therefore a hotel is not likely to be supported at any of the identified locations. If lake access were available, a small boutique hotel could be a possibility in Navarre. Additionally, office uses will be very difficult to attract in Navarre as the office market cannot generate the rents needed to support new construction; however, an office building with a built -to -suit tenant would be an ideal use for several of the identified sites. Transportation Irn 0 ents Improvements to County Road Intersection Overwhelmingly, residents of the Navarre area find the intersection of Shoreline Drive (County Rd 15) and Shadywood Road (County Rd 19) to be dangerous and unwelcoming to pedestrians and cyclists. Traffic volumes, speeds, and the orientation of the intersection all contribute to unfavorable pedestrian conditions. Based on feedback received through the citizen engagement process, a priority for the neighborhood is to make the area more pedestrian friendly. With both of these roadways under the jurisdiction of Hennepin County, the City will need to work closely with the County to ensure that future improvements meet the needs of the neighborhood. As part of any road improvement, an objective should be to reduce speeds of motor vehicles and consider all modes of transportation. This may be achieved with lane narrowing or other optical illusions to get drivers to respond accordingly. However, since the roadway is already at capacity in terms of traffic volumes, it is unlikely that improvements will aim to drastically reduce speeds. Another objective should be to tighten up the intersection and make traffic movements for all modes of traffic more predictable. Eliminating some of the free -right turns at the northwest, southwest, and southeast corners of 15/19 intersection should be options that are considered, which would help narrow the intersection, reduce speeds, and improve vehicle predictability. Hennepin County has obtained federal funding to make safety improvements to the intersection. The project is scheduled in the County's capital improvement plan for 2019. Hennepin County Page 7 may begin community outreach in 2018. In addition to broader community engagement, utilizing the PAC from this small area plan as a focus group could provide the County a good opportunity for enhanced local input. Traffic Volumes Map — Figure 3 Navarre Small Area Plan - Traffic Volumes Arterial Capacity The segments of Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road within the Navarre area would be classified as three lane undivided roadways with a capacity of 15,000 to 17,000 vehicles per day. Current and projected traffic volumes are consistent with that of a four -lane undivided roadway, as shown in Figure 4. The objective of the neighborhood to enhance pedestrian and bicycle mobility is not consistent with a common transportation goal to move as many vehicles through the area as quickly as possible. This plan supports improvements to the intersection that improve safety for pedestrians and cyclists while still reasonably accommodating vehicle traffic. The City should continue to work with Hennepin County on a plan that achieves safety improvements for pedestrians and cyclists, while also exploring improvements to other arterials in the area that could relieve some of the traffic pressure through Navarre. Page 8 Navarre Small Area Plan Figure 4 - Planning Level Urban Roadway Capacities Trail to Businesses Connection Shadywood Trail Connection The Dakota Rail Trail is a valuable recreation and transportation asset to the Navarre Community, spanning 13 miles through the communities of St. Bonifacius, Minnetrista, Mound, Spring Park, Minnetonka Beach, Orono, and Wayzata. As a highly -used bike and walking trail, an opportunity exists to connect trail users to the Navarre area. Presently, there is not an ideal physical connection to draw people from the trail towards the businesses and the park. At the time of this report, Hennepin County, Three Rivers Park District, and the City of Orono have discussed an unformalized agreement to fund a trail connection south of the trail along Shadywood Road to the park. This connection was also well supported throughout the community engagement process. The implementation of this trail connection should be a priority for Navarre. Additional analysis will need to be done to identify the necessary mitigation required to impacted property owners. Additional community engagement should also be done regarding the trail connection and could be done concurrently with the engagement surrounding the intersection improvements. The City of Orono should continue to have discussions with Hennepin County and Three Rivers Park District regarding the trail connection to keep the process moving forward. Community Events Through the community engagement process, it was found that there is a desire to create a sense of place and enhanced sense of community. One of the ways this could be achieved is through community events. Through the community engagement process, people responded favorably to the idea of an annual festival in Navarre. An annual festival would bring people to the area and create an awareness of what Navarre is. The community engagement process also revealed a desire to see enhanced branding for Navarre. The city -owned parking lot on the north side of Shoreline Drive and west of Shadywood Road provides a centralized location and public open space for an event. The enhancement of this public space to accommodate uses in addition to parking should be explored. An event could be centered around the Dakota Rail Trail and include some kind of race or walkathon. An event could be coordinated in collaboration with nearby communities and feature different attractions along the trail. In addition to an annual event, Navarre could host a regular farmers' market in collaboration with Mound, which currently hosts a farmers' market along the trail. Page 9 Daily Two-way Volume Shoreline Drive (vehicles) (County Road 15) Facility Type Current 2030 Lower Higher Traffic Traffic Threshold Threshold Level Forecast Two lane undivided 10,000 12,000 N/A N/A Arterials Two lane divided or N/A Three lane undivided 15,000 17,000 17,800 Four lane undivided 18,000 22,000 18,100 Trail to Businesses Connection Shadywood Trail Connection The Dakota Rail Trail is a valuable recreation and transportation asset to the Navarre Community, spanning 13 miles through the communities of St. Bonifacius, Minnetrista, Mound, Spring Park, Minnetonka Beach, Orono, and Wayzata. As a highly -used bike and walking trail, an opportunity exists to connect trail users to the Navarre area. Presently, there is not an ideal physical connection to draw people from the trail towards the businesses and the park. At the time of this report, Hennepin County, Three Rivers Park District, and the City of Orono have discussed an unformalized agreement to fund a trail connection south of the trail along Shadywood Road to the park. This connection was also well supported throughout the community engagement process. The implementation of this trail connection should be a priority for Navarre. Additional analysis will need to be done to identify the necessary mitigation required to impacted property owners. Additional community engagement should also be done regarding the trail connection and could be done concurrently with the engagement surrounding the intersection improvements. The City of Orono should continue to have discussions with Hennepin County and Three Rivers Park District regarding the trail connection to keep the process moving forward. Community Events Through the community engagement process, it was found that there is a desire to create a sense of place and enhanced sense of community. One of the ways this could be achieved is through community events. Through the community engagement process, people responded favorably to the idea of an annual festival in Navarre. An annual festival would bring people to the area and create an awareness of what Navarre is. The community engagement process also revealed a desire to see enhanced branding for Navarre. The city -owned parking lot on the north side of Shoreline Drive and west of Shadywood Road provides a centralized location and public open space for an event. The enhancement of this public space to accommodate uses in addition to parking should be explored. An event could be centered around the Dakota Rail Trail and include some kind of race or walkathon. An event could be coordinated in collaboration with nearby communities and feature different attractions along the trail. In addition to an annual event, Navarre could host a regular farmers' market in collaboration with Mound, which currently hosts a farmers' market along the trail. Page 9 The Navarre Community Initiative had developed a community event as late at 2016 which was well received. Any community event will require continued leadership from those within the community, most likely in the form of volunteer residents and area stakeholders. Community partners should consider the formation of a 501(c)3 organization should be explored for the purpose of managing an annual festival. Partnerships with the City of Orono, Hennepin County, and Three Rivers Park District could be beneficial in carrying on a successful ongoing festival. With a 501(c)3 organization, the public or agencies may donate resources or in-kind services to assist in the cost of any event, such as police or public works assistance. Existing Single -Family Housing In highly desirable areas, including the Navarre community, existing single-family homes are more frequently torn down to reconstruct newer single-family homes. In some cases, this is beneficial, as blighted properties are removed and larger homes bring in increased property value and young families. In other cases, there may be issues, such as new development being inconsistent with the existing neighborhood character and disruption during the construction. Navarre has already experienced some signs of this development pressure. As such, outreach was done regarding this topic as part of the small area plan process. Generally, people responded that their concern surrounding the tear down and rebuild of single family homes in the area is low to moderate. The top two issues identified for which there is a moderate level of concern include preservation of existing neighborhood character and the height of new development. The City should review development standards applicable to single family homes in Navarre and make sure that adequate controls are in place to ensure that new development is compatible with the existing character and scale of the neighborhood, while still encouraging redevelopment of blighted properties to occur. A proactive approach to code enforcement and property maintenance should also be taken to address properties that are deteriorating and detracting from the neighborhood. t �N Implementation Q1*1 Interaction with Lake Minnetonka • As part of any redevelopment proposals involving parcels on the south side of Shoreline Drive between Carman Street and Kelly Avenue, work with developers to identify opportunity areas that allow for viewing, sitting, and walking near the lakeshore. Fishing or boating connections to Lake Minnetonka are not anticipated. Future Development • Consider allowing increased building heights and residential density in areas along Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road (where appropriate) to increase pedestrian traffic and encourage additional retail development. • Consider incorporating incentives into the zoning ordinance that allow for higher density in exchange for enhanced architectural features, underground parking, public amenities, plazas, open spaces, and recreation areas. • Adopt architectural and design regulations where appropriate to require pedestrian scale design. Consider regulations for maximum building setbacks, minimum window coverage, location of parking facilities, architectural materials, fagade articulation, and entryways. • Review all permitted and conditional commercial uses within zoning districts along Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road to ensure that the types of desired businesses are allowed in Navarre. Types of allowable uses should focus on small scale neighborhood goods and services and avoid those that do not have a large customer draw. • Consider reduced parking requirements for businesses that provide bicycle parking. Page 10 Explore acquiring additional property for providing shared parking and periodic public gatherings for Navarre businesses. Host a developer round table to discuss obstacles to development in Navarre. Be prepared to address those obstacles. Consider developing a fagade improvement program to encourage the revitalization of neglected commercial buildings. Revolving loan funds may keep the money working within Navarre. Transportation Improvements • Work with Hennepin County on a plan for future improvements to Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road that improves safety and mobility for pedestrians and cyclists. Consider eliminating some of the free right turns at the northwest, southwest, and southeast corners to help narrow the intersection, reduce speeds, and improve vehicle predictability. Check in with Hennepin County staff bimonthly and use the Navarre Small Area Plan PAC as the review committee for potential improvements. • Explore options for adding pedestrian and streetscaping amenities with any roadway improvements such as wider sidewalks, decorative pavement, landscaping, benches, and other ornamental features. • Meet with Hennepin County transportation staff to discuss potential improvements to alternate arterials that would relieve traffic pressure on Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road through Navarre. Discuss options to reduce traffic volumes on Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road. • Consider plans for access and the impact of expected traffic volume on Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road with any redevelopment along these roads. Work with Hennepin County on developing an access management plan for properties that may redevelop along these roadways. Shadywood Trail Connection • Continue to have discussions with Hennepin County and Three Rivers Park District regarding the trail connection along Shadywood Road to keep the process moving forward. • Engage with impacted property owners early to identify necessary mitigation required. • Conduct additional public engagement regarding the trail as part of the community engagement surrounding the intersection improvements. Community Events • Encourage the development of a community festival. Community partners should consider forming a 501(c)3 organization to assist in fundraising and administration of a community festival. • Consider collaboration with nearby communities on an event that incorporates multiple destinations along the trail. • Utilize the city -owned parking lot on the north side of Shoreline Drive and west of Shadywood Road as a possible location for hosting tents, bands, and vendors associated with an event. • Should the block northwest of Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Lane (Maxfield Study Block 4) redevelop, that redevelop should include a space available for public gatherings such as an annual festival. • Leverage an annual festival as an opportunity to do enhanced branding for Navarre. • Explore opportunities for collaboration with the Mound farmers' market to organize a farmers' market along the Dakota Rail Trail in Navarre. • Consider the formation of a Navarre Business Association. Page 11 Tear Downs • Review development standards applicable to single-family homes in Navarre. Review to ensure that adequate controls are in place to ensure that new development is compatible with the existing character and scale of the neighborhood, while still encouraging the redevelopment of blighted properties. Such standards could include requirements for floor area ratio, height, hardcover, architectural materials, landscaping, and accessory structures. • Proactively address blighted properties through the City's code enforcement process so that existing homes are well maintained. Consider revisions to the City's code enforcement process or adopting fines if non-compliance is an issue. • Review its demolition and construction regulations. If the regulation updates require addition administration and monitoring by City staff, consideration should be given to increasing the demolition permit fee commensurate with the addition staffing demand. Page 12 LIST OF APPENDICES Market Study Public Engagement Traffic Information Appendix Maxfield Research & Consulting December 19, 2017 MEMORANDUM TO: Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates FROM: Mr. Matt Mullins & Ms. Hannah Bonestroo Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC. RE: Initial Market Assessment for the Navarre Small Area Plan in Orono, Minnesota Introduction/Purpose and Scope of Research This memorandum contains an initial market assessment to evaluate the potential develop- ment opportunities in Navarre neighborhood located in Orono, Minnesota. The scope of the study includes a review of key demographic trends, an assessment of current market conditions for housing, and analysis of the current commercial market in the Lake Minnetonka area. The methodology used to calculate demand in this memorandum is proprietary to Maxfield Re- search but is consistent with methodologies used by analysts throughout the housing industry. This report includes primary and secondary research. Primary research includes interviews with rental property and self -storage managers gathering data on existing and proposed rental and self -storage properties. Secondary research is credited to the source when used, and is usually data from the U.S. Census or regional planning agencies. Secondary research is always used as a basis for analysis, and is carefully reviewed in light of other factors that may impact projec- tions such as residential building permit data or migration trends. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Navarre Trade Area December 19, 2017 Page 2 Navarre is located within the City of Orono. While Orono only has a population of just over 8,000 people (Esri 2017), approximately 56,000 other people (Esri 2017) live within a 5 -mile ra- dius of the site set from the intersection of Shadywood Road and Shoreline Drive. Notable communities within a five -mile radius of Navarre include: Wayzata, Mound, Shorewood, Spring Park, Long Lake, Maple Plain, Medina, Excelsior, Minnetrista, and Chanhassen. Downtown Minneapolis is only a 20 -30 -minute drive from Navarre via Highway 12/394. The neighborhood is located along Shoreline Drive which is utilized by around 17,600 vehicles each day (MnDOT). Navarre 1 -Mile, 3 -Mile, & 5 -Mile Radius a pie Plain _ 4 � Parlw rs � Narw in- Lt i - Labe - Orono a Parti x Lan_q Lake = - .. 5,;2Bivr1 — Go If ClubrWayzata ISI fa Algid.-- �841nu -,`tia;' to Ba, 3 �I Z `G, rc vm BiY ' 7,r ^t ',rm ice. Lakz Ldinnetanka Parti. MinnC i,nka ak Nlooda r "r- Spf nq Park Farm Mound iv4 Coo ks a Minn trista g.al10%t4sBeep-haven Gideon 4 S t Bonifactus Bal Itl celstor �y S ±phway `�h Shcrewaacfsa J, L ,.n — £ J 3 C row n G�Ila�e °1"r °R ?a ' o _arver .,i Farb. Peseru_- a w '4a91sy Vi Rd r6areium4lyy I Chanhassen Victoria `+. Ilii v 'd178oh St ',, 21'� —_ Land AciFT =EsfenPralri. °i Ribcieluin. — �' � n f,l ilkr MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber December 19, 2017 WSB & Associates, Inc. Page 3 Neighborhood Analysis Navarre is a community of 342 people (Esri 2017) that covers just over 100 acres in southern Orono, MN. Orono, located in Hennepin County, has a population of 8,179 (Esri 2017). Situated on Shoreline Drive, the subject area is almost completely surrounded by Lake Minnetonka, the ninth largest lake in Minnesota and a popular attraction for boaters, sailors, and fishermen. The site is bordered to its West by Spring Park, to its South by Tonka Beach, and is about 18.5 miles away from Downtown Minneapolis. The site area consists of 230 parcels comprising of a variety of uses. Residential land uses are by far the most common type of use present representing roughly 60% of parcels and 38% of acres. There are 24 vacant parcels in Navarre of various land uses. Of special interest are 27 parcels, mostly along Shoreline Drive, which are particularly suited for redevelopment. The fol- lowing table, maps, and photos depict the site location and the surrounding land uses. Apartments Commerical Common Area Residential Seasonal- Residential Townhouse Vacant Subtotal TABLE 1 PARCEL SUMMARY NAVARRE Source: Realist Tax, Maxfield Research & Consulting LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC $510,000 $795,000 WM 1 0.96 $285,000 26 33.60 $5,654,000 6 10.39 $0 137 38.80 $12,703,000 8 2.50 $554,000 28 1.04 $672,000 24 14.01 $663,000 230 101.3 $20,531,000 Source: Realist Tax, Maxfield Research & Consulting LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC $510,000 $795,000 $7,441,000 $13,095,000 $0 $0 $16,571,000 $29,274,000 $801,000 $1,355,000 $4,143,000 $4,815,000 $0 $663,000 $29,466,000 $49,997,000 Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Navarre Site Parcels December 19, 2017 Page 4 Navarre Land Use by Parcel il-esr.drnr iTogo Rd A� Id County Rd �� northern ��e Crystal P1 — II■■■1■ ■11111111 � �� ■II■111 1 ■11■1111■i �� �■ m■■■I 1■1�■�11■1111 o{e� MINE on IN Land Use��- Apartment oQe �L Commercial L9 Common Area L l_'ar�riaf� 1iaE' � Residential Seasonal Residential Townhouse Vacant 0 0.1'25 0.25 0.5 ��tiles MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Navarre Site Location December 19, 2017 Page 5 0 0 325 0.25 0.5 Miles. o fYsst,4)iTg'AoOld County Rd e Crystal PI �t ga o� �y `oe Take kfinnet whi L y� C LP Loi7iz Lake ORONO - Site Area 0 0.5 4 2 Miles MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Navarre Zoning, 2017 ('r,i'.ctiif Y3aY JK>.v Ai—w Togo }fid Po, 14 o4Lhef0 \,je Crystal Pi ��� ®11■1■n■nl ■■■■■1 ■1■1111■ himII■II ■1111 ■ Zoning Districts Business _ B-1 - Retail Sales B-3 - Shopping Center 1z, _ B-4-Office/Professional B-5 - Limited Neighborhood Lakeshore Residential LR -1C - One Family Lakeshore ResidentW - 1/2 Acre LR -1C-1 - One Family Lakeshore Residential Subdistrict - 1/2 Acre Planned Unit Development PRD - Planned Residential Development Traffic Counts c 01 '9L December 19, 2017 Page 6 Id County Rd V 10075 0.15 0.3 Miles I i s i I i i I Traffic counts are provided by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT). Traffic counts are reported as the number of vehicles expected to pass a given location on an average day of the year. This value is called the "annual average daily traffic" and are represented on traffic count or traffic volume maps. The AADT is based on a short-term traffic count, usually 48 hours, taken at the location. This count is then adjusted for the variation in traffic volume throughout the year and the average number of axles per vehicle. Short-term counts are col- lected over a three-year cycle. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 7 According to MnDOT 17,600 vehicles utilize Shoreline Drive on the southern border of Navarre daily. Shadywood Road, which runs through the eastern half of Navarre, has an annual average daily traffic count of 4,900, while Sunset Drive, just west of the site, has and AADT of 2,490. The maps on the following page illustrate the drive times from the subject property and traffic counts. This information is helpful in determining a draw area for various services in the area. It is also useful to determine access to workforce as potential business operations would likely give strong consideration to commuting patterns when making location decisions. As shown, the Site can be reached within a 20 to 30 -minute drive of Downtown Minneapolis. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Navarre Drive Time R,:kfcwd �i ` Fridley Brooklyn ' rake F-6eu Gent r ' ,12' De@ari: NJ;iHope IJ toy _ • ltd Crystal = diva - c _ ' , Minneapolis St LWis Park W `.-°`4a5t ,n E -AeSi Mars Minnetonka Mi nn etri sta a . - •� w _ Edina ;N 5Cm st Mayer - _ - ..:` w `-il :k`��e�"',�fj W Gull 31 II1 •ap "I ' •° - 4v=`- .S. fawn h. en 'r_�--.Eden W that V+ TEth S Richfteicf l ., Inrl:, rV •�n. It toric - Prairie. e a. nsDa�l— LEWacomaF m a Pi.,... lig j LL 'Jd S 71 - o Blvvmingtgton E. Il 'V.Ivy W Old ShaN.ap �'d y Shakopee I.. Ni"'. F d wng America Chaska - -1, n,,-- rv_+n Fa r1c IiC ffR rued Cne olo ttur _ tJ 9ieC..' Savaae + Burnsville,, MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber December 19, 2017 WSB & Associates, Inc. Page 8 Navarre Traffic Counts ! Togo Rd �9pp Id County R O� tqooern Ave C stat PI P ti� ; eft ore ?7,600440T r Qo��ti 00 \Lake lvlrivnet nka Carman Bay °P 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 Miles Population & Household Growth Trends Population and household growth trends and projections are analyzed in this section because these are key indicators of the potential demand for new housing units and additional commer- cial space in a community. We also analyze data on population age distribution, household in- come, household tenure, and household type to determine the housing and shopping needs of the local household base. Table 2 presents population and household growth trends in the Market Area from 2000 to 2022. The 2000 and 2010 population and household figures were obtained from the U.S. Cen- sus Bureau. The 2017 estimate and projection for 2022 are based on data provided by ESRI with adjustments made by Maxfield Research to reflect current year data. The following are key points from Table 2. • As of 2017, Orono is estimated to have 8,179 people. Between 2000 and 2010, the pop- ulation decreased 1.3% (-101) while the number of households increased 2.1% (+58). • In 2017, the population of Navarre is estimated to make up 4.2% of the total population of Orono. While Hennepin County experienced growth between 2000 and 2010, Orono decreased in population. However, both the city and county are expected to grow from 2017 to 2022. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 9 • Although the population of Navarre was only 342 persons in 2017; the population in- creases to over 2,100 persons within a one -mile radius, nearly 21,000 within three miles, and over 56,000 within five -miles. Household growth outpaced population growth during the 2000s and is forecast to do so through 2022. The aging of the baby -boom generation, declining birth rates, and many couples choosing to postpone having children until later in life are all factors con- tributing to a declining average household size. These trends will continue to generate demand for more diverse housing products such as townhomes, and condominiums. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 2 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS MARKET AREA 2000 to 2022 ••i • • 2000 2010 2017 2022 No. Pct. No. Pct. Navarre N/A N/A 342 357 N/A N/A 15 4.4% Navarre 1 -mile radius N/A N/A ,2,102 2,195 N/A N/A 93 4.4% Navarre 3 -mile radius N/A N/A 20,890 21,826 N/A N/A 936 4.5% Navarre 5 -mile radius N/A N/A 56,133 58,823 N/A N/A 2,690 4.8% Orono City 7,538 7,437 8,179 8,678 -101 -1.3% 499 6.1% Hennepin County 1,116,200 1,152,425 1,248,638 1,312,919 36,225 3.2% 64,281 5.1% HOUSEHOLDS Navarre N/A N/A 175 181 N/A N/A 6 3.4% Navarre 1 -mile radius N/A N/A 932 968 N/A N/A 36 3.9% Navarre 3 -mile radius N/A N/A 8,723 9,090 N/A N/A 367 4.2% Navarre 5 -mile radius N/A N/A 21,685 22,670 N/A N/A 985 4.5% Orono City 2,763 2,821 3,080 3,253 58 2.1% 173 5.6% Hennepin County 456,129 473,856 511,605 536,306 17,727 3.9% 24,701 4.8% PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD Navarre N/A N/A 1.95 1.97 Orono City 2.73 2.64 2.66 2.67 Hennepin County 2.45 2.43 2.44 2.45 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Age Distribution December 19, 2017 Page 10 The age distribution of a community's population helps in assessing the type of housing and commercial services needed. For example, younger and older people are more attracted to higher density housing located near urban services and entertainment while middle-aged peo- ple (particularly those with children) traditionally prefer lower -density single-family homes. In terms of retail, younger people typically seek services such as entertainment, electronics, and specialty apparel. Child stores increase in popularity for the 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 age cohorts while home furnishings are more frequently sought by the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 age groups. Table 3 presents the age distribution of the Market Area population from 2000 to 2022. Infor- mation from 2000 and 2010 is sourced from the U.S. Census. The 2017 estimates and projec- tions for 2022 were calculated by Maxfield Research based on information from local building permits and economic conditions. The following are key trends about the age distribution of the Market Area's population. • In 2017, we estimate that the largest adult cohort by age in Navarre is 45 to 54 totaling 63 people (19.4% of the total population), followed by the 55 to 64 age group with 56 people (17.3%). The same trend was found in Orono where the two largest age cohorts are also 45 to 54 (21.0%) and 55 to 64 (17.8%). • The greatest growth is projected to occur among older adults. Aging of baby boomers led to a 51.4% increase (+1,537 people) in the 55 to 64 population between 2000 and 2010 in Orono. As this group ages, the 65 to 74 and 75 plus age groups are projected to experience rapid growth from 2017 to 2022, expanding 28.0% and 32.8%, respectively. • A decline in the middle age cohorts is projected between 2017 and 2022 in Orono. The 45 to 54 age cohort is expected to decline 5.8%. • The weak growth projected for the middle age population is a result of the compara- tively small number of people who will move into those age cohorts between 2017 and 2022, a phenomenon known as the "baby bust." The "baby bust" is often referred to the generation of children born between 1965 and 1980, an era when the United States birthrate dropped sharply. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. 2.500 o 2,000 L 4J 4-- 1,500 L d1 E 1,000 500 0 35.0°/0 30.0% 25.0% 20,0% c s 15.001 U 10.001 v 5.0! 0.0/ 5.0010 -10,0% Population Age Distribution Orono 2017 December 19, 2017 Page 11 ■ 2017 ■ X722 11 11 11111111 1 Under 18 18 to 24 25 to 34 3.5 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 6.5 to 74 75 plus Age Cohort Percent Change in a Distribution From 2017-2022 ■ Navarre ■ Oro in Age Cohort MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC I. 1 III 110 In III nderrl8 V24 25 to 34 35 to 44 k 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus Age Cohort MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 12 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 3 POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2000-2022 U.S. Census I ESRI Change 2000-2010 Change 2017-2022 2000 2010 2017 2022 No. Pct. No. Pct. Under 18 N/A 66 63 65 N/A N/A 2 3.2% 18 to 24 N/A 16 18 17 N/A N/A -1 -5.6% 25 to 34 N/A 36 41 43 N/A N/A 2 4.9% 35 to 44 N/A 49 48 51 N/A N/A 3 6.3% 45 to 54 N/A 63 58 55 N/A N/A -3 -5.2% 55 to 64 N/A 56 61 63 N/A N/A 2 3.3% 65 to 74 N/A 26 40 47 N/A N/A 7 17.5% 75 plus N/A 12 15 1;� N/ N/A 3 20.0% � Total N/A 324 344 359 N/A N/A 15 44.4% Under 18 2,062 1,976 1,968 1,920 -86 -4.2% -48 -2.4% 18 to 24 337 325 439 468 -12 -3.6% 29 6.6% 25 to 34 597 400 493 549 -197 -33.0% 56 11.4% 35 to 44 1,414 914 872 927 -500 -35.4% 55 6.3% 45 to 54 1,578 1,559 1,454 1,369 -19 -1.2% -85 -5.8% 55 to 64 874 1,323 1,537 1,607 449 51.4% 70 4.6% 65 to 74 420 587 956 1,224 167 39.8% 268 28.0% 75 plus 256 353 1 457 607 97 37.9% 150 32.8% Total 7,538 7,437 8,176 8,671 -101 51.7% 495 81.4% Hennepin County Under 18 267,502 261,345 268,719 274,768 -6,157 -2.3% 6,049 2.3% 18 to 24 108,767 113,551 124,686 125,843 4,784 4.4% 1,157 0.9% 25 to 34 183,860 187,523 191,588 198,828 3,663 2.0% 7,240 3.8% 35 to 44 191,872 154,304 164,543 178,271 -37,568 -19.6% 13,728 8.3% 45 to 54 156,068 171,130 161,675 156,373 15,062 9.7% -5,302 -3.3% 55 to 64 85,773 133,758 160,972 163,600 47,985 55.9% 2,628 1.6% 65 to 74 59,737 66,516 101,312 125,133 6,779 11.3% 23,821 23.5% 75 plus 62,621 64,298 75,143 90,103 1,677 2.7% 14,960 19.9% Total 1,116,200 1,152,425 1,248,638 1,312,919 36,225 64.1% 64,281 57.1% Sources: U.S. Census; ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber December 19, 2017 WSB & Associates, Inc. Page 13 Household Income Distribution Income data is useful in that it can reflect wage trends and helps assess living conditions and reveal demand for different types of services. This data also helps determine demand for differ- ent types of owned and rented housing based on the size of the market at specific cost levels. In general, housing costs of up to 30 percent of income are considered affordable by the Depart- ment of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Household income data also helps ascertain demand for different types of retail services. People with lower incomes are likely to seek out discount retailers and spend a higher proportion of their income on necessities like grocery items. Retail services and goods such as dining and home furnishings will experience higher spending from more moderate -income households while upper income households will also shop for specialty apparel, recreation and sporting goods, and luxury items. The next three tables present data on household income by age of householder in 2017 and 2022 for Navarre, Orono, and Hennepin County. The data is estimated by ESRI and adjusted by Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC to reflect the most current local household estimates and projections. The following are key points. • In 2017, the median household income for Navarre is estimated to be $91,744. This value is lower than the estimate for Orono ($136,259), but significantly higher than that of Hennepin County ($68,497). However, the median income for Navarre is expected to increase by 15.5% to $105,955 by 2022. • As households age through the lifecycle, their household income tends to peak in their late 40s and early 50s. This trend is evident in the Market Area as the age 45 to 54 co- hort has the highest estimated income at $189,487 in Orono. • Rental housing often targets younger renter households. The median household income in Orono is $63,804 for the under -25 age group and $102,544 for the 25 to 34 age group. Households earning the median income for these age groups could afford monthly housing costs estimated at $1,595 and $2,564, respectively. • Households in the 35 to 44 age group that may delay buying a home could afford a $3,879 monthly rent, based on the median household income of $155,158. • The median sale price for new construction multifamily housing units (twinhomes and detached townhomes) in Orono is approximately $677,00 (based on recently sold and active listings). Assuming that a potential home buyer has good credit and makes a 20% down payment, a household would need to have a minimum annual income of roughly $166,000 to be income -qualified for a new construction multifamily unit purchased at the median price in Orono. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140;000 $120,000 $100,000 $8©,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 <25 ■ Navarre ■ 0rono Income Trends by Age of Householder (2017) December 19, 2017 Page 14 45-54 55-64 ■ Navarre 1 -Mile Radius Navarre 3 -Mile Radius ■ Navarre 5 -Mile Radius Hennepin Twin Cities Metro Area ■ Minnesota MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 15 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 4 HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER NAVARRE 2017 & 2022 Total <25 25-34 Age 35-44 of Householder 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Less than $15,000 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 $15,000 to $24,999 8 0 1 1 1 1 3 1 $25,000 to $34,999 6 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 $35,000 to $49,999 29 1 5 5 4 5 6 3 $50,000 to $74,999 28 1 5 5 5 6 4 2 $75,000 to $99,999 18 1 3 4 3 3 3 1 $100,000 to $149,999 31 1 4 6 7 8 4 1 $150,000 to $199,999 14 0 2 3 4 4 1 0 $200,000+ 38 0 2 7 11 13 4 1 Total 175 4 23 32 36 42 27 11 Median Income $91,744 $75,000 $71,478 $100,000 $123,670 $120,118 $63,528 $46,511 Less than $15,000 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 $15,000 to $24,999 9 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 $25,000 to $34,999 6 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 $35,000 to $49,999 25 1 4 4 3 4 6 3 $50,000 to $74,999 27 1 5 5 4 5 5 2 $75,000 to $99,999 17 1 3 4 2 3 3 1 $100,000 to $149,999 36 1 5 7 7 9 6 1 $150,000 to $199,999 17 0 2 4 4 5 1 1 $200,000+ 43 0 3 8 12 14 5 1 Total 181 4 24 34 33 43 31 14 Median Income $105,955 $75,000 $81,880 $110,312 $144,931 $131,812 $71,613 $43,660 Change 2017 - 2022 Less than $15,000 -0 0 0 0 0 -0 -0 -0 $15,000 to $24,999 1 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 1 $25,000 to $34,999 -0 0 -0 -0 -1 -0 -0 1 $35,000 to $49,999 -4 -0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 $50,000 to $74,999 -1 -0 -0 -0 -1 -1 1 -0 $75,000 to $99,999 -1 -0 -0 -0 -1 -0 -0 -0 $100,000 to $149,999 5 -0 1 1 -0 1 2 -0 $150,000 to $199,999 3 0 -0 1 -0 1 -0 1 $200,000+ 5 0 1 1 1 1 1 -0 Total -1 -0 -0 -0 -4 -1 3 2 Median Income $14,211 $0 $10,402 $10,312 $21,261 $11,694 $8,085 -$2,851 Sources: ESRI; US Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 16 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 5 HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER NAVARRE 1 -MILE RADIUS 2017 & 2022 Total <25 25-34 Age 35-44 of Householder 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Less than $15,000 24 2 2 2 2 6 4 6 $15,000 to $24,999 44 2 4 4 3 4 18 9 $25,000 to $34,999 36 2 5 5 4 6 7 7 $35,000 to $49,999 126 S 21 19 17 23 25 16 $50,000 to $74,999 148 5 27 21 23 32 26 14 $75,000 to $99,999 97 4 17 18 16 20 17 5 $100,000 to $149,999 155 3 20 26 31 39 30 6 $150,000 to $199,999 69 1 9 14 19 19 5 2 $200,000+ 237 2 15 38 64 79 32 6 Total 938 26 120 147 180 229 165 71 Median Income $97,619 $57,692 $76,100 $106,122 $136,225 $124,911 $77,335 $46,812 1 Less than $15,000 24 2 2 2 1 6 5 6 $15,000 to $24,999 43 2 4 3 3 3 17 11 $25,000 to $34,999 33 2 5 5 2 4 7 8 $35,000 to $49,999 114 4 18 17 14 18 26 17 $50,000 to $74,999 133 4 25 19 17 26 27 15 $75,000 to $99,999 99 4 18 18 14 19 19 7 $100,000 to $149,999 174 3 22 31 31 43 37 8 $150,000 to $199,999 81 1 11 17 20 21 7 4 $200,000+ 268 2 19 43 66 87 43 9 Total 968 24 124 155 167 226 187 85 Median Income $108,471 $60,207 $84,347 $116,920 $153,886 $141,252 $89,341 $50,556 Change 2017 - 2022 Less than $15,000 - -0 -0 -1 -0 1 -0 $15,000 to $24,999 -0 -0 -1 -0 -1 -1 2 $25,000 to $34,999 -0 _ -0 -0 -2 -2 -0 1 $35,000 to $49,999 -11 -3 -2 -3 -5 1 1 $50,000 to $74,999 to $99,999 -16f-1 0 -2 ilp$75,000 1 -2 0 -6 2 -6 1 1 2 1 2 $100,000 to $149,999 19 -0 2 5 -0 4 7 2 $150,000 to $199,999 12 -0 2 3 1 2 2 2 $200,000+ 31 -0 4 5 2 7 11 3 Total -13 -2 -3 -1 -15 -12 10 9 Median Income $10,852 $2,515 $8,247 $10,798 $17,661 $16,341 $12,006 $3,744 Sources: ESRI; US Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 17 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 6 HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER NAVARRE 3 -MILE RADIUS 2017 & 2022 Total <25 25-34 Age 35-44 of Householder 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Less than $15,000 438 15 30 37 53 114 92 97 $15,000 to $24,999 472 19 35 45 44 80 113 136 $25,000 to $34,999 432 16 51 48 57 80 77 103 $35,000 to $49,999 907 32 111 117 134 175 180 158 $50,000 to $74,999 1,349 34 174 171 230 303 252 185 $75,000 to $99,999 1,048 19 138 165 209 261 192 64 $100,000 to $149,999 1,572 11 160 244 386 435 264 72 $150,000 to $199,999 789 5 65 143 238 217 98 23 $200,000+ 1,716 5 74 255 540 573 216 53 Total 8,723 156 838 1,225 1,891 2,238 1,484 891 Median Income $91,867 $47,455 $77,430 $104,070 $123,273 $108,725 $77,839 $44,226 1 Less than $15,000 460 16 28 40 40 103 109 124 $15,000 to $24,999 468 18 33 41 31 63 124 158 $25,000 to $34,999 407 13 44 45 35 66 83 121 $35,000 to $49,999 847 31 98 102 99 139 195 183 $50,000 to $74,999 1,233 29 153 155 165 245 271 215 $75,000 to $99,999 1,062 22 141 165 169 248 230 87 $100,000 to $149,999 1,783 13 184 289 364 473 348 112 $150,000 to $199,999 908 5 81 173 223 244 142 40 $200,000+ 1,922 5 90 299 498 636 307 87 Total 9,090 152 852 1,309 1,624 2,217 1,809 1,127 Median Income $101,249 $48,659 $85,486 $113,653 $133,315 $120,668 $86,626 $47,567 Change 2017 - 2022 Less than $15,000 22 -2 3 -13 -11 17 27 $15,000 to $24,999 -4 1 -2 -4 -13 -17 11 22 $25,000 to $34,999 -25 -3 -7 -3 -22 -14 6 18 $35,000 to $49,999 -6 -1 -13 -15 -35 -36 15 25 $50,000 to $74,999 -116 -5 -21 -16 -65 -58 19 30 $75,000 to $99,999 11 3 3 0 -40 -13 38 23 $100,000 to $149,999 211 2 24 45 -22 38 84 40 $150,000 to $199,999 119 0 16 30 -15 27 44 17 $200,000+ 206 0 16 44 -42 63 91 34 Total 42 -4 -18 10 -210 -111 190 185 Median Income $9,382 $1,204 $8,056 $9,583 $10,042 $11,943 $8,787 $3,341 Sources: ESRI; US Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 18 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 7 HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER NAVARRE 5 -MILE RADIUS 2017 & 2022 Total <25 25-34 Age 35-44 of Householder 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Less than $15,000 908 34 64 72 108 238 182 210 $15,000 to $24,999 953 34 70 80 91 173 251 254 $25,000 to $34,999 1,012 30 110 104 134 190 179 265 $35,000 to $49,999 1,861 61 227 218 267 361 346 381 $50,000 to $74,999 2,852 73 363 338 478 599 525 476 $75,000 to $99,999 2,412 43 301 367 484 613 466 138 $100,000 to $149,999 4,128 29 403 615 1,064 1,161 657 199 $150,000 to $199,999 2,411 14 213 452 723 654 275 80 $200,000+ 5,093 20 243 824 1,635 1,609 584 178 Total 21,632 338 1,994 3,070 4,984 5,599 3,465 2,181 Median Income $106,948 $52,275 $86,704 $123,984 $141,240 $121,815 $86,651 $48,954 1 Less than $15,000 964 36 65 78 81 218 215 271 $15,000 to $24,999 943 33 66 70 59 133 274 308 $25,000 to $34,999 954 25 99 97 85 155 190 303 $35,000 to $49,999 1,743 60 205 185 197 289 369 438 $50,000 to $74,999 2,613 64 328 300 328 483 561 549 $75,000 to $99,999 2,433 43 314 363 383 580 563 187 $100,000 to $149,999 4,575 31 470 701 964 1,238 868 304 $150,000 to $199,999 2,708 14 259 532 660 727 389 127 $200,000+ 5,686 19 300 964 1,533 1,759 831 281 Total 22,618 325 2,106 3,290 4,289 5,581 4,259 2,768 Median Income $113,617 $52,254 $97,540 $135,702 $152,691 $133,557 $97,629 $51,960 Change 2017 - 2022 Less than $15,000 56 1 6 -27 -20 33 61 $15,000 to $24,999 -10 -4 -10 -32 -40 23 54 $25,000 to $34,999 -58 -5 -11 -7 -49 -35 11 38 $35,000 to $49,999 -11` -1 -22 -33 -70 -72 23 57 $50,000 to $74,999 -240 -9 -35 -38 -150 -116 36 73 $75,000 to $99,999 20 -0 13 -4 -101 -33 97 49 $100,000 to $149,999 447 2 67 86 -100 77 211 105 $150,000 to $199,999 296 -0 46 80 -63 73 114 47 $200,000+ 593 -1 57 140 -102 150 247 103 Total 97 -12 9 -0 -530 -240 433 437 Median Income $6,669 -$21 $10,836 $11,718 $11,451 $11,742 $10,978 $3,006 Sources: ESRI; US Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 19 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 8 HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER ORONO CITY 2017 & 2022 Total <25 25-34 Age 35-44 of Householder 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Less than $15,000 56 2 2 4 5 17 9 17 $15,000 to $24,999 87 2 4 6 8 15 32 20 $25,000 to $34,999 78 1 5 7 10 15 19 21 $35,000 to $49,999 180 4 19 21 26 34 35 41 $50,000 to $74,999 377 9 34 39 59 71 75 90 $75,000 to $99,999 322 6 32 49 60 77 69 29 $100,000 to $149,999 555 2 39 72 131 152 125 34 $150,000 to $199,999 333 1 25 56 97 88 48 18 $200,000+ 1,092 3 38 157 363 348 144 39 Total 3,080 30 198 411 759 817 556 309 Median Income $136,259 $63,804 $102,544 $155,158 $189,487 $163,004 $111,200 $62,452 1 Less than $15,000 62 2 2 4 6 14 12 22 $15,000 to $24,999 87 2 5 6 3 12 33 26 $25,000 to $34,999 74 1 5 7 6 13 20 22 $35,000 to $49,999 171 4 17 18 20 29 36 47 $50,000 to $74,999 353 7 32 33 41 57 79 104 $75,000 to $99,999 331 6 36 46 50 74 81 38 $100,000 to $149,999 622 2 44 79 125 161 160 51 $150,000 to $199,999 366 1 29 61 92 92 64 27 $200,000+ 1,186 3 45 169 346 371 195 57 Total 3,253 28 215 423 689 823 680 394 Median Income $141,731 $65,462 $108,435 $162,213 $200,001 $174,822 $119,256 $67,060 Change 2017 - 2022 Less than $15,000 6 0 0 1 -3 3 5 $15,000 to $24,999 0 1 0 -5 -3 1 6 $25,000 to $34,999 -4 0 0 0 -4 -2 1 1 $35,000 to $49,999 - 0 -2 -3 -6 -5 1 6 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 -24 -2 0 -2 4 -6 -3 -18 -10 -14 -3 4 12 14 9 $100,000 to $149,999 67 0 5 7 -6 9 35 17 $150,000 to $199,999 33 0 4 5 -5 4 16 9 $200,000+ 94 0 7 12 -17 23 51 18 Total 46 -2 6 -5 -48 -21 57 58 Median Income $5,472 $1,658 $5,891 $7,055 $10,514 $11,818 $8,056 $4,608 Sources: ESRI; US Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 20 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 9 HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER HENNEPIN COUNTY 2017 & 2022 Total <25 25-34 Age 35-44 of Householder 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Less than $15,000 44,258 5,988 7,575 5,589 5,278 7,799 5,294 6,735 $15,000 to $24,999 42,732 4,274 7,349 5,400 4,341 5,867 6,290 9,211 $25,000 to $34,999 40,300 3,349 8,681 5,917 4,874 5,646 5,229 6,604 $35,000 to $49,999 59,869 3,731 12,622 9,333 8,414 8,907 8,261 8,601 $50,000 to $74,999 85,577 3,925 18,235 14,698 14,278 14,539 11,084 8,818 $75,000 to $99,999 65,409 1,996 13,762 12,898 11,960 12,396 8,335 4,062 $100,000 to $149,999 85,199 1,230 15,432 18,274 18,676 18,690 9,352 3,545 $150,000 to $199,999 40,399 590 5,686 8,865 11,237 8,852 3,999 1,170 $200,000+ 47,862 353 4,452 9,802 13,383 13,151 5,085 1,636 Total 511,605 25,436 93,794 90,776 92,441 95,847 62,929 50,382 Median Income $68,497 $31,725 $62,192 $82,052 $92,581 $83,783 $62,080 $38,534 1 Less than $15,000 45,953 6,145 7,586 6,027 4,898 7,410 6,102 7,785 $15,000 to $24,999 41,982 4,105 6,729 4,805 3,720 5,253 6,933 10,437 $25,000 to $34,999 37,952 3,108 7,731 5,405 3,922 4,879 5,760 7,147 $35,000 to $49,999 56,015 3,556 11,215 8,320 7,071 7,554 8,957 9,342 $50,000 to $74,999 80,045 3,732 16,650 13,595 11,774 12,606 11,981 9,707 $75,000 to $99,999 67,819 2,343 14,146 13,323 11,019 11,943 10,018 5,027 $100,000 to $149,999 101,536 1,546 18,805 22,176 19,881 20,840 12,917 5,371 $150,000 to $199,999 48,706 759 7,297 11,004 11,875 10,169 5,769 1,833 $200,000+ 56,298 416 5,701 11,940 13,770 14,554 7,428 2,489 Total 536,306 25,710 95,860 96,595 87,930 95,208 75,865 59,138 Median Income $76,759 $32,967 $70,962 $92,712 $102,495 $94,729 $70,010 $40,513 Change 2017 - 2022 Less than $15,000 1,695 157 11 438 -380 -389 808 1,050 $15,000 to $24,999 -750 -169 -620 -595 -621 -614 643 1,226 $25,000 to $34,999 -2,348 -241 -950 -512 -952 -767 531 543 $35,000 to $49,999 -3,854 -175 -1,407 -1,013 -1,343 -1,353 696 741 $50,000 to $74,999 -5,532 -193 -1,585 -1,103 -2,504 -1,933 897 889 $75,000 to $99,999 2,410 347 384 425 -941 -453 1,683 965 $100,000 to $149,999 16,337 316 3,373 3,902 1,205 2,150 3,565 1,826 $150,000 to $199,999 8,307 169 1,611 2,139 638 1,317 1,770 663 $200,000+ 8,436 63 1,249 2,138 387 1,403 2,343 853 Total 7,958 42 -794 1,542 -5,536 -3,359 8,823 7,240 Median Income $8,262 $1,242 $8,770 $10,660 $9,914 $10,946 $7,930 $1,979 Sources: ESRI; US Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Household Type December 19, 2017 Page 21 As with age distribution, the trends in types of households impact demand for different types of housing. Table 10 presents data on the types of households in the Market Area in 2010 and 2015. Family households include married -couple families with children (so-called "traditional" families), married couples without children (mostly empty nesters, but also young married cou- ples without children), and other -family households (single parents and unmarried couples with children). Non -family households include persons living alone and roommates (unrelated indi- viduals living together, including unmarried couples without children). • In 2015, there were a total of 3,184 family households in Orono including 766 married couples with children, 1,130 married couples without children, and 182 other families. Married couples without children include empty nesters, who are increasingly a market for for -sale multifamily housing and younger couples without children, who are also a primary market for rental housing. • From 2010 to 2015, the greatest growth among family households in Orono was among "other" families, which grew by 81 households (80.2%). This is in contrast with the de- crease by 119 households (-13.4%) in the number of married couples with children in Orono. Conversely, from 2010 to 2015 in Hennepin County, the number of families categorized as "other" decreased by 269 households (-0.6%) and the number of married couples with children increased by 65 households (0.1%). • There were 1,106 non -family households in Orono in 2015. This includes 126 persons living alone and 980 roommate households. Persons living alone added 28 households (28.6%) to Orono from 2010 to 2015, while the number of roommate households in- creased by 339 (52.9%). Roommate households consist of unrelated persons living with each other to share housing costs and unmarried couples without children, among oth- ers. These persons also tend to be younger and often prefer to live in locations that are closer to entertainment, activities, and other nightlife. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. 1,200 MO O i 800 tv a 600 al E 400 z 200 Household Type, Orono (2010-2.015) Household Type December 19, 2017 Page 22 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 10 HOUSEHOLD TYPE PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2010 & 2015 Households 2010 2015 Married w/ 2010 Child 2015 Family Households Married w/o Child 2010 2015 Other 2010 2015 Non -family Households Living Alone Roommates 2010 2015 2010 2015 Orono City Hennepin County 2,821 472,586 3,184 488,941 885 94,635 766 94,700 1,096 1,130 112,311 120,473 101 45,268 182 44,999 98 22,026 126 23,774 641 198,346 980 204,995 State of Minnesota 1,895,127 2,087,227 477,615 443,212 540,630 617,297 1 236,896 288,506 509,468 584,008 1 130,518 154,204 Percent Orono City Hennepin County 100.0 100.0 100.0 4 100.0 31.4% 20.0% 24.1% 19.4% 38.9% 35.5% 23.8% 24.6% 3.6% 9.6% 5.7% 9.2% 3.5% 4.7% 4.0% 4.9% 22.7% 42.0% 30.8% 41.9% State of Minnesota 100.0 100.01 1 25.2% 21.2% 28.5% 29.6% 12.5% 13.8% 26.9% 28.0% 6.9% 7A% No. Pct. No. Pct. Change 2010-2015 No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. Orono City Hennepin County 363 16,355 12.9% 3.5% -119 65 -13.4% 0.1% 34 3.1% 8,162 7.3% 81 -269 80.2% -0.6% 28 1,748 28.6% 7.9% 339 6,649 52.9% 3.4% State of Minnesota 192,100 10.1% -34,403 -7.2% 76,667 14.2% 51,610 21.8% 74,540 14.6% 23,686 18.1% *Single -parents with children ** Includes unmarried couples without children and group quarters Sources: U. S. Census; ESRI, Inc.; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Summary of Demographic Trends December 19, 2017 Page 23 The following points summarize key demographic trends that will impact development in Na- va rre. • The population in Orono is forecast to grow by 499 people (+6.1%) and 173 households (+5.6%) between 2017 and 2022. • The population over age 65 is expected to experience a substantial increase in Orono, as a result of the aging of the baby boom generation. • Median incomes are rising in Orono, with a 4.0% increase forecast between 2017 and 2022 as incomes rise from $136,259 to $141,731. • Only 15% of residential units in Orono are renter -occupied. Out of renter -occupied units, 66.7% are single-family homes, the rest are in structures with 50 or more units. • Between 2010 and 2015, married couple households with children decreased in Orono, while married couple households without children, other family households and household- ers living alone increased. Orono Building Permit Data Based on building permit data obtained from Metropolitan Council, Table 11 presents the num- ber of housing units added in Orono since 2007. • A total of 360 new housing units were delivered in Orono between 2007 and 2016. Approxi- mately 83% of the permitted units were for single-family homes (298), while 17.2% were for multifamily units (62 units). • The number of new permits generally increased each year since 2007. The number of per- mitted single-family housing units added from 2012 to 2016 (205 units) was over double of those added from 2007 to 2011 (93 units). MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. TABLE 11 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION BUILDING PERMITTED UNITS ISSUED ORONO, MN 2007 to 2017 Units Permitted Year Family Multifamily Total Units 2007 23 0 23 2008 23 0 23 2009 20 0 20 2010 10 0 10 2011 17 62 79 2012 25 0 25 2013 39 0 39 2014 42 0 42 2015 62 0 62 2016 37 0 37 Total 298 62 360 Sources: Met Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting LLC Housing Units by Structure Type December 19, 2017 Page 24 Based on Census data, Table 12 presents the number of housing units by housing type as com- pared with housing tenure. Housing types compared include single-family detached units, townhouse units, and multifamily units. Multifamily includes duplex, triplex, and four-plex units as well as buildings with five or more units. • Out of all residential housing units in Orono about 94% were single-family homes, while only 6% of units were multifamily. However, when considering housing tenure, out of owner -occupied units, 99% were single family homes, while out of renter -occupied units 66.7% of units were single family homes. • For Hennepin County in 2015, single detached homes accounted for 90.4% of owner - occupied housing units. The largest portion of renter -occupied units in Hennepin County were those in structures containing 50 or more units accounting for 32.2% of all units. This compares with just in Orono, where structures containing 50 or more units were the only type of multifamily structure. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Housing Units by Structure, Orono City (2015) m ■2to9 ■10to19 20 to 49 ■ 5he -0 December 19, 2017 Page 25 Housing Units by Structure, Hennepin County (2015) 0% 14M N F*'l ■ 1 ■ 2 to 9 ■ 10 to 19 20 to 49 ■ 50+ ■ Other MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 26 Housing Resale Values Table 13 presents recently sold single family homes, condos/townhomes, and multi -family homes in Navarre and Orono from January 2017 to mid-November 2017. • A total of 186 properties were identified as recently sold in Orono with 153 single family homes listed and 33 condo or multi -family homes • The largest percentage (30%) of single family homes in Orono were sold for over $1,000,000. Only 5% of single family homes were sold for less than $200,000. • Only 16 homes have sold through mid-November 2017 in Navarre. Compared to Orono proper the housing market in Navarre is much more affordable as the average and me- dian sales price was $215,305 and $206,500, respectively. The housing stock is also older and smaller as the average home size was 1,476 finished square feet. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 12 HOUSING UNITS BY STRUCTURE & TENURE PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2015 ORONO CITY HENNEPIN COUNTY Owner- Renter- Owner- Renter - Units in Structure Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. Occupied Pct. 1, detached 2,615 96.6% 239 50.0% 247,800 80.6% 23,400 12.8% 1, attached 66 2.4% 80 16.7% 30,109 9.8% 12,592 6.9% 2 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 4,012 1.3% 12,829 7.0% 3 to 4 10 0.4% 0 0.0% 2,669 0.9% 8,885 4.9% 5 to 9 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2,588 0.8% 10,911 6.0% 10 to 19 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2,076 0.7% 22,573 12.3% 20 to 49 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 4,620 1.5% 32,276 17.7% 50 or more 15 0.6% 159 33.3% 12,573 4.1% 58,794 32.2% Mobile home 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 910 0.3% 446 0.2% Boat, RV, van, etc. 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 38 0.0% 95 0.1% Total 2,706 100% 478 100% 307,395 100% 182,801 100% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau -American Community Survey; Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC Housing Resale Values Table 13 presents recently sold single family homes, condos/townhomes, and multi -family homes in Navarre and Orono from January 2017 to mid-November 2017. • A total of 186 properties were identified as recently sold in Orono with 153 single family homes listed and 33 condo or multi -family homes • The largest percentage (30%) of single family homes in Orono were sold for over $1,000,000. Only 5% of single family homes were sold for less than $200,000. • Only 16 homes have sold through mid-November 2017 in Navarre. Compared to Orono proper the housing market in Navarre is much more affordable as the average and me- dian sales price was $215,305 and $206,500, respectively. The housing stock is also older and smaller as the average home size was 1,476 finished square feet. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 27 Recently Sold Residential Properties, Orono (2017) $1,000,000 and over $900,000 to $999,999 � $800,000 to $899,000 $700,000 to $799,000 o $600,000 to )If ``a $500,(100 to $59 ol�mmm� $400,000 $4 $300,OOOt 3 99 $200,000 tea $ 9,999 $100,000t© $199,999 < $99,999 0 10 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 20 30 40 50 Count TABLE 13 RECENTLY SOLD (JANUARY 2017- NOVEMBER 2017) MARKET AREA Condo/ Townhomes/ Multi -Family Single Family Homes Homes Total Navarre Orono Navarre Orono Navarre Orono Cost Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent <$99,999 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 3 9% 0 0% 3 2% $100, 000 to $199,999 3 33% 8 5% 3 43% 0 0% 6 38% 8 4% $200, 000 to $299,999 5 56% 13 8% 4 57% 9 27% 9 56% 22 12% $300, 000 to $399,999 1 11% 12 8% 0 0% 14 42% 1 6% 26 14% $400, 000 to $499,999 0 0% 14 9% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 14 8% $500, 000 to $599, 000 0 0% 13 8% 0 0% 1 3% 0 0% 14 8% $600, 000 to $699, 000 0 0% 12 8% 0 0% 5 15% 0 0% 17 9% $700, 000 to $799, 000 0 0% 11 7% 0 0% 1 3% 0 0% 12 6% $800,000 to $899,000 0 0% 15 10% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 15 8% $900, 000 to $999,999 0 0% 9 6% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 9 5% $1,000,000 and over 0 0% 46 30% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 46 25% Total 9 100% 153 100% 7 100% 33 100% 16 100% 186 100% Sources: Trulia; Realtor.com; RE/MAX; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC Recently Sold Residential Properties, Orono (2017) $1,000,000 and over $900,000 to $999,999 � $800,000 to $899,000 $700,000 to $799,000 o $600,000 to )If ``a $500,(100 to $59 ol�mmm� $400,000 $4 $300,OOOt 3 99 $200,000 tea $ 9,999 $100,000t© $199,999 < $99,999 0 10 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 20 30 40 50 Count Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Active Listings December 19, 2017 Page 28 Table 14 presents currently listed, for -sale single family homes, condos, and multi -family homes in Navarre and Orono as of mid-November 2017. • A total of 115 properties were identified as actively listed for -sale in Orono with 101 sin- gle family homes listed and 14 condo or multi -family homes. • The largest percentage (50%) of single family homes in Orono were listed for over $1,000,000 with only 5% listed for under $300,000. • Only seven homes were listed for sale in the Navarre area. The median list price of these listings was $288,450. 1� v MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 14 ACTIVE LISTINGS , NOVEMBER 2017 Condo/ Townhomes/ Multi -Family Single Family Homes Homes Total Navarre Orono Navarre Orono Navarre Orono Cost Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent <$99,999 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% $100, 000 to $199,999 3 50% 4 4% 0 0% 0 0% 3 43% 4 3% $200,000 to $299,999 0 0% 1 1% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 1% $300, 000 to $399,999 1 17% 7 7% 0 0% 3 21% 1 14% 10 9% $400, 000 to $499,999 1 17% 4 4% 0 0% 1 7% 1 14% 5 4% $500, 000 to $599, 000 0 0% 4 4% 1 100% 3 21% 1 14% 7 6% $600,000 to $699,000 0 0% 6 6% 0 0% 4 29% 0 0% 10 9% $700, 000 to $799, 000 0 0% 6 6% 0 0% 2 14% 0 0% 8 7% $800,000 to $899, 000 1 17% 3 3% 0 0% 1 7% 1 14% 4 3% $900, 000 to $999,999 0 0% 8 8% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 8 7% $1,000,000 and over 0 0% 58 57% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 58 50% Total 6 100% 101 100% 1 100% 14 100% 7 100% 115 100% Sources: Zillow; Realtor.com; RE/MAX; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Active Listings (Residential Properties) Orono, November 2017. $1,000,000 and over $900,000 to $999,999 t $800,000 to $899,000 $700,000 to $799,000 o $600,000 to $699,000 u $500,000 to $599,000 $400,000 to $499,999 $300,000 to $399,999 $200,000 to $299,999 ■ $100,000 to $199,999 $99,999 0 10 2�_ 30 COU [It New For -Sale Housing Projects December 19, 2017 Page 29 Table 15 presents active and pending for -sale new construction single family homes in Orono as of mid-November 2017. % �® t1 • A total of 39 new construction projects were identified as actively listed for -sale in Orono. • The largest percentage (54%) of single family homes in Orono were listed for over $1,000,000 with no active or pending new construction homes listed for under $400,000. • The median price per square foot (PSF) of a new single-family home in Orono is $253 PSF; compared to $210 PSF for a for -sale multifamily home (twinhome or detached townhome). MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. TABLE 15 NEW CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS (ACTIVE ORONO AND PENDING) Cost Count Percent $400,000- $499,999 1 3% $500,000-$599,999 3 8% $600,000- $699,999 6 15% $700,000- $799,999 6 15% $800,000- $899,999 2 5% $900,000- $999,999 0 0% $1,000,000- $1,199,999 1 3% $1,200,000- $1,299,999 9 23% ZN $1,300,000- $1,399,999 2 5%/0 10 $1,400,000- $1,499,999 2 5 $1,500,000 + 7 18% Total 39 100% New Construction (Active and Pending) $1,.500,000 + $1,400,000- $1,499,999 $1,300,000- $1,399,999 $1,200,000- $1,299,999 $1,000,000-$1,199,999 o $900,000- $999,999 U $800,000- $899,999 $700,000- $799,999 $600,0100- $699,999 $500,000-$599,999 $400,000- $499,999 0 2 Count MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC December 19, 2017 Page 30 Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Selected Multifamily Housing Developments December 19, 2017 Page 31 Table 16 lists selected multifamily housing developments in Navarre and from other Lake Min- netonka area communities. Data comprises of both for sale and rental properties and includes the number of units and bedrooms and pricing. The following points summarize the current market for multifamily residential units in Navarre. • The for -sale units range in size from 850 square feet to 4,600 square feet, while the for - rent units range in size from 450 to 2,049 square feet. • Pricing for the for -sale condominium units is at the luxury end as prices range from $273,917 to over $3,500,000. Most of new condominium product is being developed in Downtown Wayzata with prices starting at $500,000 with most product selling for over $1,000,000. • Pricing for the for -rent units ranges from $750 per month for a studio to $3,575 per month for a two-bedroom unit. • Besides The Mist on Lake Minnetonka which was built in 2007, all the other for -rent pro- jects predate 2000. The for -sale units were all built after 2000. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 16 SELECTED MULTIFAMILY UNITS NAVARRE SURROUNDING AREA Yr. No. of 111111M �- Name Type Open Units Bedrooms Min - Max Min - Max Avg. The Landing Condos 2017 31 2-3 BR 1,220 - 4,600 $825,000 - $3,500,000 $719 815 Wayzata Blvd E; Wayzata Meyer Place at Ferndale Condos 2017 21 2-4BR 2,000 - 4,000 $1,290,000 - $2,399,000 $622 105 Lake St E; Wayzata The Regatta Condos 2015 59 1-2BR 850 - 4,000 $500,000 - $2,000,000 $544 801 Lake St E; Wayzata Lakeview Lofts Condos 2005 32 1-2BR 1,297 - 1,534 $273,917 - $380,202 $230 4100 Spring St; Spring Park The Mist on Lake Minnetonka Apartments 2007 121 1-2BR 1,260 2,049 N/A $3,575 N/A 4201 Sunset Dr; Spring Park Minnetonka Edgewater Apartments 1967 82 0-2BR 450 - 1,078 $875 $1,450 $1.64 4177 Shoreline Dr; Spring Park Bayview Apartments Apartments 1969 107 0-3BR 500 1,200 $750 - $1,500 $1.33 24001nterlachen Rd; Spring Park Parkshore Apartments Apartments 1984 92 1-2BR 643- 1,050 N/A N/A N/A 4601 Shoreline Dr; Spring Park Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Selected Multifami December 19, 2017 Page 32 & Commercial Development The Mist on Lake Minnetonka VIN-WW""M The Regatta Lakeview Lofts The Landing - Hotel Senior Housing (� The term "senior housing" refers to any housing development that is restricted to persons age 55 or older. Today, senior housing includes a spectrum of housing alternatives, which occasion- ally overlap, thus making the differences somewhat ambiguous. However, the level of support services offered best distinguishes them. The following figure classifies senior housing projects into five categories based on the level of support services that are offered. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber December 19, 2017 WSB & Associates, Inc. Page 33 Table 17 shows the inventory of existing market rate senior housing products in Navarre and the surrounding Lake Minnetonka communities that would be competitive with a new market rate senior housing development on the subject property. • As displayed in Table 17, five properties with a total of over 300 units were identified near the Orono area. • Four out of five projects offered assisted living care and only one out of the five projects offered solely adult/few services units. • Although there are no senior housing developments in Navarre, a large senior housing campus is located to the west in Spring Park (Lake Minnetonka Shores). MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Continuum of Housing and Services for Seniors Single -Family Townhome or Congregate Apartments w/ Assisted Luing Nursing Facilities Age -Restricted Independent Single- Congregate Apartments Memory Care Family, Townhomes, Apartments, w/ Intensive Services (Alzheimer's and Condominiums, Cooperatives Dementia Units) Fully Fully or Highly Independent Dependent on Care Lifestyle Senior Housing Product Type Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC Table 17 shows the inventory of existing market rate senior housing products in Navarre and the surrounding Lake Minnetonka communities that would be competitive with a new market rate senior housing development on the subject property. • As displayed in Table 17, five properties with a total of over 300 units were identified near the Orono area. • Four out of five projects offered assisted living care and only one out of the five projects offered solely adult/few services units. • Although there are no senior housing developments in Navarre, a large senior housing campus is located to the west in Spring Park (Lake Minnetonka Shores). MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Home Apartment i Optional Services Age -Restricted Independent Single- Congregate Apartments Memory Care Family, Townhomes, Apartments, w/ Intensive Services (Alzheimer's and Condominiums, Cooperatives Dementia Units) Table 17 shows the inventory of existing market rate senior housing products in Navarre and the surrounding Lake Minnetonka communities that would be competitive with a new market rate senior housing development on the subject property. • As displayed in Table 17, five properties with a total of over 300 units were identified near the Orono area. • Four out of five projects offered assisted living care and only one out of the five projects offered solely adult/few services units. • Although there are no senior housing developments in Navarre, a large senior housing campus is located to the west in Spring Park (Lake Minnetonka Shores). MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 34 TABLE 17 SELECTED SENIOR HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS NAVARRE SURROUNDING AREA NOVEMBER 2017 Number Project/ Address Year Built of Units Services Presbyterian Homes and Services 2013 254 Adult/ (Folkestone) Few Services/ 100 Promenade Ave; Wayzata Assisted Living/ Memory Care Trails of Orono 2012 76 Assisted Living/ 875 Wayzata Blvd; Wayzata Memory Care Orono Woods Senior Apartments 2002 62 Adult/ 2040 Wayzata Blvd; Long Lake Few Services Long Lake Assisted Living LLC 2005 N/A !it Assisted Living/ 345 North Brown Rd; Long LakeHousing With 01_ Services Sojourn Suites LLC 1984 2-7 per Assisted Living/ 3645 Lyric Ave; Navarre, location Housing With (8 locations total) Services/ Memory Care Presbyterian Homes and Services X78 131 Adult/ (Lake Minnetonka Shores) Few Services/ 4527 Shoreline Dr; Spring Park Assisted Living/ Memory Care Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC Selected Senior Housing Developments qwpw-._ — Folkestone MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Presbyterian Homes- Lake Minnetonka Shores Mr. Eric Zweber December 19, 2017 WSB & Associates, Inc. Page 35 Trails of Orono Consumer Expenditure Patterns Long Lake Assisted Living Table 18 shows estimated consumer expenditures and average expenditures per households for retail goods and services in Navarre and Orono compared to all of Hennepin County in 2017. Data was obtained from ESRI based on Consumer Expenditure Surveys from the Bureau of La- bor Statistics. V The table shows the average expenditures per household in the Market Area by product or ser- vice. The average expenditure reflects the average amount spent per household, while the total expenditure reflects the aggregate amount spent by all households. In addition, a Spending Po- tential Index (SPI) is illustrated for comparison purposes. The SPI is based on households and represents the annual expenditures for a product or service relative to the national average which is given a benchmark index of 100. An SPI of 115 indicates that the average annual ex- penditure by local consumers is 15% above the national average. Two-thirds of the national economy is driven by consumer spending. Consumer spending is in- fluenced by market conditions and trends. In times of economic troubles, market conditions drive spending patterns toward convenience and necessities, whereas in times of a booming economy consumer trends feature opportunity and luxury items. During the most recent reces- sion, when the housing market began its decline in late 2006 into 2007, consumer spending and consumer confidence followed. Households decreased spending, increased savings, and re- duced credit card debt as many households were faced with job losses. As the nation exited the recession, consumers gained confidence and spending gradually recov- ered. Consumer confidence continues to grow suggesting economic growth with higher con- sumption. The following are key points from the household expenditures table. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 36 • Overall, Navarre residents will spend an estimated $6.9 million on retail goods and ser- vices in 2017, excluding housing, finance/insurance, and travel expenditures, as well as vehicle purchases. • Average annual expenditures (excluding the categories mentioned above) are estimated to be $38,538 per household in Navarre. This compares to an average of $27,506 per household for Hennepin County. • As reflected in the SPI, expenditures by Navarre and Orono households are higher than the Hennepin County average in every product and service category. • Among the retail categories, Market Area spending was greatest for Food at Home (i.e. groceries) at an average of $8,353 per household in Navarre compared to $6,052 per household in Hennepin County. • Spending was also high for Food Away from Home ($5,693 per Navarre household) and Entertainment and Recreation goods and services ($5,375 per household in Navarre). MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 37 Goods & Services TABLE 19 ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES BY SELECTED PRODUCT TYPE PRIMARY MARKET AREA Index Apparel & Services 2017 $3,715 Navarre Annual Expenditures Orono City Expenditures Hennepin Spending Potential Index to USA County Expenditures Total Average Average Average $941 $5,375 Hennepin Category ($000's) Per HH Per HH Per HH Navarre Orono City County Goods & Services IIndex Index Index Index Apparel & Services $650 $3,715 $5,299 $2,674 172 245 124 Entertainment and Recreation $941 $5,375 $7,662 $3,749 172 246 120 Nonprescription Drugs $38 $215 $292 $148 168 229 116 Prescription Drugs $113 $646 $869 $434 166 224 112 Eye Glasses & Contact Lenses $29 $163 $229 $111 173 243 117 Personal Care Products $141 $804 $1,097 $574 (-. 71 233 122 Child Care $145 $826 $1,235 $609 172 258 127 School Books & Supplies $46 $263 $369 $195 170 239 126 Smoking Products $110 $631 $706 $472 152 170 113 Computer Hardware $53 $304 $429 $220 ' 176 248 127 Computer Software $4 $20 $29 $15 176 251 132 Pets $178 $1,017 $1,408 $682 171 236 114 Food IIndex Index Index Food at Home $1,462 $8,354 $11,114 $6,052 166 221 120 Food Away from Home $996 $5,693 $7,818 $4,121 171 235 124 Alcoholic Beverages $173 $990 $1,423 $705 178 256 127 Home IIndex Index Index Index Home Mortgage Payment/Rent $2,726 $15,574 $24,766 $9,967 181 287 116 Maintenance& Remodeling Services $622 $3,557 $5,845 $2,218 183 301 114 Maintenance& Remodeling Material $121 $689 $1,138 $433 170 281 107 Utilities $1,456 $8,317 $11,246 $5,898 165 223 117 Household Furnishings, Equipment, & Operations Index F Index Household Textiles $29 $167 $240 $118 175 252 124 Furniture $174 $995 $1,400 $711 174 245 124 Rugs $8 $43 $69 $29 185 299 125 Major Appliances $96 $549 $772 $363 171 241 113 Small Appliances $15 $83 $113 $60 172 233 124 Housewares $29 $163 $222 $114 172 234 120 Luggage $4 $22 $35 $15 181 292 128 Telephone & Accessories $21 $118 $151 $86 171 218 125 Lawn & Garden $129 $739 $1,113 $469 176 265 112 Moving/Storage/Freight Express $19 $111 $143 $86 174 223 134 Hous ekeepingSupplies $209 $1,195 $1,610 $842 168 226 118 Financial & Insurance Index Index Index Investments $2,069 $11,825 $20,817 $7,512 191 336 121 Vehicle Loans $775 $4,430 $5,684 $3,156 163 209 116 Owners & Renters Insurance $156 $889 $1,298 $569 172 251 110 Vehicle Insurance $345 $1,973 $2,671 $1,408 168 227 120 Life/Other Insurance $134 $764 $1,232 $495 179 288 116 Health Insurance $1,089 $6,225 $8,733 $4,237 170 239 116 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 38 Retail Demand Potential and Leakage Tables 20 through 24 on the following pages present current retail sales and consumer expendi- ture data for Block Groups 27053072031 and 27053072032; Orono; Hennepin County; and a 5 - mile radius around Navarre. Due to ESRI data limitations, information could not be provided for the Navarre site area and instead the two block groups closest to the site were analyzed (see map on the following page). The sales information is from ESRI based on household counts. This information lists retail demand (potential sales), retail supply to consumers (retail sales) and provides a picture of the gap between the area's retail supply and demand. A positive value represents "leakage" of retail opportunity to stores outside of the Market Area. A negative value represents a "surplus," where more customers are coming into the area for retail goods and services than there are households in the area. • As depicted in the tables and illustrated in the following graphs, leakages exist in most retail industry segments in both Navarre and Orono. For the Navarre area block groups, MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 19 CONTINUED ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES BY SELECTED PRODUCT TYPE PRIMARY MARKET AREA 2017 Navarre Annual Orono City Hennepin Spending Potential Index to USA County Expenditures Expenditures Expenditures Total Average Average Average Hennepin Category ($000-s) Per HH Per HH Per HH Navarre Orono City County Transportation Index Index Index Cars and Trucks (Net Outlay) $656 $3,746 $4,893 $2,635 167 218 117 Gasoline and Motor Oil $794 $4,535 $5,917 $3,257 164 213 117 Vehicle Maintenance/Repair $318 $1,818 $2,515 $1,276 170 235 119 Travel IIndex Index Index Airline Fares $163 $933 $1,501 $645 183 295 127 Lodging $167 $951 $1,500 $634 182 286 121 Vehicle Rental $8 $48 $75 $32 182 282 123 Food &Drink on Trips $155 $888 $1,358 $600 180 275 122 Average Annual Household Expenditures Summary Goods & Services $2,446 $12,962 $18,217 $9,202 Food $2,631 $15,036 $20,354 ` $10,878 Home $4,924 $28,138 $42,995 $18,517 Household $733 $4,186 $5,868 Wit $2,893 Financial and Insurance $4,569 $26,106 $40,436 $17,376 Transportation $1,767 $10,099 $13,325 $7,168 Travel $494 $2,821 $4,434 $1,910 Total $17,564 $99,349 $145,627 $67,944 Note: The Spending Potential Index is based on households and represents the amount spent for a product or service relative to the national average of 100. Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC Retail Demand Potential and Leakage Tables 20 through 24 on the following pages present current retail sales and consumer expendi- ture data for Block Groups 27053072031 and 27053072032; Orono; Hennepin County; and a 5 - mile radius around Navarre. Due to ESRI data limitations, information could not be provided for the Navarre site area and instead the two block groups closest to the site were analyzed (see map on the following page). The sales information is from ESRI based on household counts. This information lists retail demand (potential sales), retail supply to consumers (retail sales) and provides a picture of the gap between the area's retail supply and demand. A positive value represents "leakage" of retail opportunity to stores outside of the Market Area. A negative value represents a "surplus," where more customers are coming into the area for retail goods and services than there are households in the area. • As depicted in the tables and illustrated in the following graphs, leakages exist in most retail industry segments in both Navarre and Orono. For the Navarre area block groups, MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 39 the total Retail Trade industry (including Food and Drink) experienced a $46.5 million sales leakage in 2017, while Orono experienced a $209.8 million sales leakage. • There is high leakage in Orono and from within the three- and five -mile radius of Na- varre. This suggests the Navarre area is under retailed and could support new commer- cial development. Navarre Site Block Groups e MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Surplus/Leakage by Retail Category (Block Groups) Total (Retail + Food & Drink) Food Services & Drinking Places Nonstore Retailers Miscellaneous Retailers General Merchandise Sporting Goods, Hobby... Clothing and Accessories... Gasoline Stations Health & Personal Care Food & Beverage Bldg Materials, Garden Equip... Electronics & Appliance Furniture & Furnishings Motor Vehicle & Parts... -1 Surplus/Leak Total (Retail + Food & Drink) Food Services & Drinking Places hlonstore Retailers Miscellaneous Retailers General Merchandise Sporting Goods, Hobby... Clothing and Accessories... Gasoline Stations Health & Personal Care Food & Beverage Bldg Materials, Garden Equip... Electronics & Appliance Furniture & Furnishings Motor Vehicle & Parts... December 19, 2017 Page 40 —surplus -,`leakage 01 -100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 ----surplus---- MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC ------leakage------ Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 41 Surplus/Leakage by Retail Category (Navarre 3 -Mole Radius) Total (Retail + Food & Drink) Food Services & Drinking Places Nonstore Retailers Miscellaneous Retailers General Merchandise Sporting Goods, Hobby... Clothing and Accessories... Gasoline Stations Health & Personal Care Food & Beverage Bldg Materials, Garden Equip... Electronics & Appliance Furniture & Furnishings Motor Vehicle & Parts... -100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 —surplus— —'V_ leakage------ Surplus/Leakage by Retail Category (Navarre 5 -Mile Radius) Total (Retail + Food & Drink) Food Services & Drinking Places Nonstore Retailers Miscellaneous Retailers General Merchandise Sporting Goods, Hobby... Clothing and Accessories... Gasoline Stations Health & Personal Care Food & Beverage Bldg Materials, Garden Equip... Electronics & Appliance Furniture & Furnishings Motor Vehicle & Parts... -100 -75 -50 -25 0 ----surplus--- MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 25 50 75 100 -----leakage----- Mr. Eric Zweber December 19, 2017 WSB & Associates, Inc. Page 42 Surplus/Leakage by Retail Category (Hennepin County) Total (Retail + Food & Drink) Food Services & Drinking Places Nonstore Retailers Miscellaneous Retailers General Merchandise Sporting Goods, Hobby... Clothing and Accessories... Gasoline Stations Health & Personal Care Food & Beverage Bldg Materials, Garden Equip... Electronics & Appliance Furniture & Furnishings Motor Vehicle & Parts... -1 ----surplus---- *L ------leakage------ MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC M Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 43 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 20 RETAIL DEMAND POTENTIAL AND LEAKAGE BLOCK GROUPS 27053072031 AND 27053072032 2017 Demand Supply Retail Gap Surplus/leakage Number of Industry Group (NAICS Code) (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) (Demand - Supply) Factor Businesses Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink (NAICS 44-45, 722) $83,246,161 $36,712,858 $46,533,303 38.8 24 Total Retail Trade (NAI C544-45) $74,923,922 $31,455,599 $43,468,323 40.9 18 Total Food & Drink (NAICS 722) $8,322,239 EXPENDITURE $5,257,259 TYPE $3,064,980 22.6 6 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $15,332,266 $4,274,957 $11,057,309 56.4 5 AutomobileDeaIers $12,220,953 $0 $12,220,953 100.0 0 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $1,736,499 $0 $1,736,499 100.0 0 Auto Parts, Accessories &Tire Stores $1,374,814 $4,274,957 ($2,900,143) (51.3) 5 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $2,433,512 $938,640 $1,494,872 44.3 1 Furniture Stores $1,446,739 $0 $1,446,739 100.0 0 Home Furnishings Stores $986,773 $938,640 $48,133 2.5 1 Electronics & Appliance Stores $2,864,604 $0 $2,864,604 100.0 0 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores $5,412,792 $3,223,242 $2,189,550 25.4 3 Bldg Material&Supplies Dealers $4,894,588 $3,223,242 $1,671,346 20.6 3 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $518,204 $0 $518,204 100.0 0 Food & Beverage Stores $11,791,677 $13,854,42,062,798) (8.0) 2 Grocery Stores $9,646,239 $13,36 3 3,721,796) (16.2) 1 Specialty Food Stores $596,215 <+$0 $596,215 100.0 0 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $1,549,223 a $486,44 $1,062,783 52.2 1 Health & Personal Care Stores $5,225,483 $,0 $5,225,483 100.0 0 Gasoline Stations $7,998,282 $7,625,12 $372,670 2.4 2 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $4,167,426 $0 $4,167,426 100.0 0 Clothi ng Stores $2,807,837 $0 $2,807,837 100.0 0 Shoe Stores $576,622 $0 $576,622 100.0 0 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores $782,967 $0 $782,967 100.0 0 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores $2,352,042 $354,365 $1,997,677 73.8 1 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical InstrStores $2,043,401 $354,365 $1,689,036 70.4 1 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $308,641 $0 $308,641 100.0 0 General Merchandise Stores $13,233,944 $708,161 $12,525,783 89.8 1 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. $9,975,419 $0 $9,975,419 100.0 0 Other General Merchandise Stores $3,258,525 $708,161 $2,550,364 64.3 1 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $2,875,558 $228,135 $2,647,423 85.3 2 Florists i $168,075 $95,461 $72,614 27.6 1 Office Supplies, Stationary & Gift Stores $605,024 $0 $605,024 100.0 0 Used Merchandise Stores $375,089 $0 $375,089 100.0 0 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $1,727,370 $132,674 $1,594,696 85.7 1 Nonstore Retailers $1,236,336 $248,012 $988,324 66.6 1 Electronic Shopping & Mail -Order Houses $960,637 $0 $960,637 100.0 0 Vending Machine Operators $54,560 $0 $54,560 100.0 0 Direct Selling Establishments $221,139 $248,012 ($26,873) (5.7) 1 Food Services & Drinking Places $8,322,239 $5,257,259 $3,064,980 22.6 6 Special Food Services $200,835 $227,460 ($26,625) (6.2) 1 Drinking Places- Alcoholic Beverages $508,937 $1,048,301 ($539,364) (34.6) 1 Restaurants/Other Eating Places $7,612,467 $3,981,498 $3,630,969 31.3 4 Note: All figures quoted in 2016 dollars. Supply (retail sales) estimates sales to consumers by establishments, sales to businesses are excluded. Demand (retail potential) estimates the expected amout spent by consumers ata retail establishment. Leakage/Surplus factor measures the relationship between supply and demand at ranges from+100 (total leakage) to -100 (total surplus). A positivevalue represents "leakage" of retail opportunity outside the trade area. A negative value represents a surplus of retail sales, a market where customers are drawn in from outside the trade area. Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 44 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 21 RETAIL DEMAND POTENTIAL AND LEAKAGE NAVARRE 3 -MILE RADIUS 2017 Demand Supply Retail Gap Surplus/Leakage Number of Industry Group (NAICS Code) (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) (Demand - Supply) Factor Businesses Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink (NAICS 44-45, 722) $535,612,858 $172,168,743 $363,444,115 51.3 120 Total Retai I Trade (NAICS 44-45) $482,523,379 $133,891,510 $348,631,869 56.6 89 Total Food & Drink (NAICS 722) $53,089,479 EXPENDITURE $38,277,232 TYPE $14,812,247 16.2 31 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $99,423,043 $23,897,095 $75,525,948 61.2 15 Automobi le Dealers $79,182,070 $2,050,214 $77,131,856 95.0 3 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $11,338,855 $16,703,910 ($5,365,055) (19.1) 6 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $8,902,118 $5,142,971 $3,759,147 26.8 6 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $15,746,253 $4,068,157 $11,678,096 58.9 6 Furniture Stores $9,240,709 $705,683 $8,535,026 85.8 1 Home Furnishings Stores $6,505,543 $3,362,474 $3,143,069 31.9 5 Electronics & Appliance Stores $18,233,322 $7,727,957 $10,505,365 40.5 6 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores $36,688,185 $10,731,333 $25,956,852 54.7 9 Bldg Material&Supplies Dealers $33,012,711 $9,129,145 $23,883,566 56.7 8 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $3,675,474 $1,602,187 $2,073,287 39.3 1 Food & Beverage Stores $75,096,200 $36,591,107 $38,505,093 34.5 9 Grocery Stores $61,451,947 $29,157,128 $32,294,819 35.6 3 Specialty Food Stores $3,792,310 $445,514 $3,346,796 79.0 1 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $9,851,942 $6,988,465 $2,863,477 17.0 5 Health & Personal Care Stores $33,767,842 $7,834,775 $25,933,067 62.3 5 Gasoline Stations $50,957,027 $18,086,810 $32,870,217 47.6 5 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $26,545,442 $14,016,785 $12,528,657 30.9 10 Cl othi ng Stores $17,836,647 $5,358,116 $12,478,531 53.8 7 Shoe Stores $3,687,554 $0 $3,687,554 100.0 0 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores $5,021,241 $8,658,669 ($3,637,428) (26.6) 3 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores $14,934,881 $1,638,205 $13,296,676 80.2 3 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores $12,986,768 $1,638,205 $11,348,563 77.6 3 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $1,948,113 $0 $1,948,113 100.0 0 General Merchandise Stores $84,610,381 $1,448,666 $83,161,715 96.6 3 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. $63,775,567 $0 $63,775,567 100.0 0 Other General Merchandise Stores �.-•� $20,834,815 $1,340,482 $19,494,333 87.9 2 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $18,422,426 $7,523,946 $10,898,480 42.0 17 Florists $1,228,539 $606,436 $622,103 33.9 2 Office Supplies, Stationary& Gift Stores �; $3,891,558 $3,026,738 $864,820 12.5 3 Used Merchandise Stores $2,366,857 $714,706 $1,652,151 53.6 3 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $10,935,473 $3,176,066 $7,759,407 55.0 8 Nonstore Retailers $8,098,379 $326,676 $7,771,703 92.2 1 Electronic Shopping & Mail -Order Houses $6,149,255 $0 $6,149,255 100.0 0 Vending Machine Operators $346,660 $0 $346,660 100.0 0 Direct Selling Establishments $1,602,464 $248,012 $1,354,452 73.2 1 Food Services & Drinking Places $53,089,479 $38,277,232 $14,812,247 16.2 31 Special Food Services $1,337,609 $414,454 $923,155 52.7 2 Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages $3,310,413 $1,935,735 $1,374,678 26.2 2 Restaurants/Other Eating Places $48,441,457 $35,927,043 $12,514,414 14.8 27 Note: All figures quoted in 2016 dollars. Supply (retail sales ) estimates sales to consumers by establishments, sales to businesses are excluded. Demand (retail potential) estimates theexpected amoutspent by consumers ata retail establishment. Leakage/Surplus factor measures the relationship between supply and demand at ranges from+100 (total leakage) to -100 (total surplus). A positivevalue represents "leakage" of retai I opportunity outside the trade area. A negative value represents a surplus of retail sales, a market where customers are drawn in from outside the trade area. Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 45 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 22 RETAIL DEMAND POTENTIAL AND LEAKAGE NAVARRE 5 -MILE RADIUS 2017 Demand Supply Retail Gap Surplus/Leakage Number of Industry Group (NAICS Code) (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) (Demand - Supply) Factor Businesses Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink (NAICS 44-45, 722) $1,465,161,877 $420,595,936 $1,044,565,941 55.4 309 Tota I Reta i I Trade (NAI CS 44-45) $1,319,383,170 $334,264,186 $985,118,984 59.6 233 Total Food & Drink (NAICS 722) $145,778,708 EXPENDITURE $86,331,750 TYPE $59,446,958 25.6 76 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $273,031,317 $48,007,748 $225,023,569 70.1 25 AutomobileDeaIers $217,457,583 $7,977,305 $209,480,278 92.9 4 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $31,302,300 $33,208,460 ($1,906,160) (3.0) 12 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $24,271,434 $6,821,983 $17,449,451 56.1 9 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $43,421,622 $11,715,267 $31,706,355 57.5 15 Furniture Stores $25,407,690 $996,344 $24,411,346 92.5 2 Home Furnishings Stores $18,013,933 $10,718,923 $7,295,010 25.4 13 Electronics & Appliance Stores $49,869,939 $17,626,389 $32,243,550 47.8 15 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores $101,657,303 $31,946,126 $69,711,177 52.2 28 Bldg Material&Supplies Dealers $91,455,405 $24,836,604 $66,618,801 57.3 22 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $10,201,898 $7,109,522 $3,092,376 17.9 6 Food & Beverage Stores $203,992,841 $71,428,021 $132,564,820 48.1 23 Grocery Stores $166,772,659 $51,905,277 $114,867,382 52.5 8 Specialty Food Stores $10,286,259 $2,154,202 $8,132,057 65.4 4 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $26,933,923 $17,368,543 $9,565,380 21.6 11 Health & Personal Care Stores $91,628,133 $22,411,233 $69,216,900 60.7 12 Gasoline Stations $138,114,753 $48,440,917 $89,673,836 48.1 12 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $72,910,482 $28,807,127 $44,103,355 43.4 31 Cl othi ng Stores $48,930,743 $15,583,803 $33,346,940 51.7 22 Shoe Stores $10,193,797 $0 $10,193,797 100.0 0 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores $13,785,942 $13,191,567 $594,375 2.2 9 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores $41,017,804 $10,807,870 $30,209,934 58.3 12 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores $35,693,853 $9,021,925 $26,671,928 59.6 10 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $5,323,950 $1,785,946 $3,538,004 49.8 1 General Merchandise Stores $231,338,399 $15,872,083 $215,466,316 87.2 10 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. $174,570,783 $9,654,682 $164,916,101 89.5 1 Other General Merchandise Stores v Miscellaneous Store Retailers N $56,767,617 $50,280,409 $6,217,401 $25,083,031 $50,550,216 $25,197,378 80.3 33.4 8 47 Florists $3,459,149 $914,561 $2,544,588 58.2 4 Office Supplies, Stationary& GiftSts $10,669,342 $9,460,044 $1,209,298 6.0 12 Used Merchandise Stores $6,484,743 $1,967,103 $4,517,640 53.5 7 Other Miscellaneous Stor Q0,ses; $29,667,175 $12,741,323 $16,925,852 39.9 23 Nonstore Retailers $22,120,166 $2,118,375 $20,001,791 82.5 4 Electronic Shopping&Mail $16,870,797 $1,246,433 $15,624,364 86.2 1 Vending Machine Operators $942,008 $230,841 $711,167 60.6 1 Direct Selling Establishments $4,307,361 $641,100 $3,666,261 74.1 2 Food Services & Drinking Places $145,778,708 $86,331,750 $59,446,958 25.6 76 Special Food Services $3,728,365 $949,922 $2,778,443 59.4 5 Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages $9,107,936 $3,564,223 $5,543,713 43.7 3 Restaurants/Other Eating Places $132,942,406 $81,817,605 $51,124,801 23.8 68 Note: All figures quoted in 2016 dollars. Supply (retail sales ) estimates sales to consumers by establishments, sales to businesses are excluded. Demand (retail potential) estimates theexpected amoutspent by consumers ata retail establishment. Leakage/Surplus factor measures the relationship between supply and demand at ranges from+100 (total leakage) to -100 (total surplus). A positivevalue represents "leakage" of retai I opportunity outside the trade area. A negative value represents a surplus of retail sales, a market where customers are drawn in from outside the trade area. Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 46 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 23 RETAIL DEMAND POTENTIAL AND LEAKAGE ORONO CITY 2017 Demand Supply Retail Gap Surplus/Leakage Number of Industry Group (NAICS Code) (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) (Demand - Supply) Factor Businesses Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink (NAICS 44-45, 722) $273,377,507 $63,595,140 $209,782,367 62.3 39 Tota I Reta i I Tra de (NAI CS 44-45) $245,936,678 $59,162,800 $186,773,878 61.2 33 Total Food & Drink (NAICS 722) $27,440,829 EXPENDITURE $4,432,340 TYPE $23,008,489 72.2 6 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $50,578,889 $21,468,058 $29,110,831 40.4 7 AutomobileDeaIers $40,231,314 $1,378,783 $38,852,531 93.4 1 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $5,803,044 $16,354,747 ($10,551,703) (47.6) 2 Auto Parts, Accessories &Tire Stores $4,544,531 $3,734,528 $810,003 9.8 4 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $8,166,792 $3,353,614 $4,813,178 41.8 2 Furniture Stores $4,761,449 $0 $4,761,449 100.0 0 Home Furnishings Stores $3,405,343 $3,353,614 $51,729 0.8 2 Electronics & Appliance Stores $9,444,296 $3,201,648 $6,242,648 49.4 3 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores $19,381,412 $6,201,401 $13,180,011 51.5 5 Bldg Material&Supplies Dealers $17,380,098 $4,781,741 $12,598,357 56.8 4 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $2,001,314 $1,419,660 $581,654 17.0 1 Food & Beverage Stores $37,825,732 $14,968,478 $22,857,254 43.3 3 Grocery Stores $30,734,280 $14,48038 i $16,252,242 35.9 2 Specialty Food Stores $1,894,083 $$1,894,083 100.0 0 Beer, Wine &Liquor Stores $5,197,369 $\.V $4,710,929 82.9 1 Health & Personal Care Stores $17,043,7870 $17,043,787 100.0 0 Gasoline Stations $25,217,387 6 $18,937,471 60.1 2 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $13,882,519 $0 $13,882,519 100.0 0 Cl othi ng Stores $9,254,983 $0 $9,254,983 100.0 0 Shoe Stores $1,891,861 $0 $1,891,861 100.0 0 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores $2,735,675 $0 $2,735,675 100.0 0 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores $7,694,959 $1,561,511 $6,133,448 66.3 3 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores $6,689,415 $1,561,511 $5,127,904 62.1 3 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $1,005,544 $0 $1,005,544 100.0 0 General Merchandise Stores $43,125,150 $850,552 $42,274,598 96.1 2 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. $32,641,652 $0 $32,641,652 100.0 0 Other General Merchandise Stores s, $10,483,498 $850,552 $9,632,946 85.0 2 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $9,361,046 $1,029,610 $8,331,436 80.2 5 Florists $710,279 $364,997 $345,282 32.1 2 OfficeSupplies, Stab onary&Gift Stores $2,001,624 $290,005 $1,711,619 74.7 1 Used Merchandise Stores $1,215,961 $0 $1,215,961 100.0 0 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $5,433,182 $374,608 $5,058,574 87.1 2 Nonstore Retailers $4,214,709 $248,012 $3,966,697 88.9 1 Electronic Shopping & Mail -Order Houses $3,185,449 $0 $3,185,449 100.0 0 Vending Machine Operators $173,941 $0 $173,941 100.0 0 Direct Selling Establishments $855,319 $248,012 $607,307 55.0 1 Food Services & Drinking Places $27,440,829 $4,432,340 $23,008,489 72.2 6 Special Food Services $691,993 $225,549 $466,444 50.8 1 Drinking Places- Alcoholic Beverages $1,778,415 $863,307 $915,108 34.6 1 Restaurants/Other Eating Places $24,970,421 $3,343,484 $21,626,937 76.4 4 Note: All figures quoted in 2016 dollars. Supply (retail sales ) estimates sales to consumers by establishments, sales to businesses are excluded. Demand (retail potential) estimates theexpected amoutspent by consumers ata retail establishment. Leakage/Surplus factor measures the relationship between supply and demand at ranges from+100 (total leakage) to -100 (total surplus). A positivevalue represents "leakage" of retai I opportunity outside the trade area. A negative value represents a surplus of retail sales, a market where customers are drawn in from outside the trade area. Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 47 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 24 RETAIL DEMAND POTENTIAL AND LEAKAGE HENNEPIN COUNTY 2017 Demand Supply Retail Gap Surplus/Leakage Number of Industry Group (NAICS Code) (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) (Demand - Supply) Factor Businesses Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink (NAICS 44-45, 722) $23,168,709,937 $24,969,872,273 ($1,801,162,336) (3.7) 9,278 Tota I Reta i I Tra de (NAI CS 44-45) $20,858,232,830 $22,157,297,456 ($1,299,064,626) (3.0) 6,390 Total Food & Drink (NAICS 722) $2,310,477,107 EXPENDITURE $2,812,574,817 TYPE ($502,097,710) (9.8) 2,888 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $4,308,548,701 $4,935,215,848 ($626,667,147) (6.8) 494 Automobi le Dea I ers $3,446,131,266 $4,381,372,658 ($935,241,392) (11.9) 192 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $481,691,364 $241,203,595 $240,487,769 33.3 89 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $380,726,071 $312,639,595 $68,086,476 9.8 213 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $671,176,633 $973,802,560 ($302,625,927) (18.4) 372 Furniture Stores $404,679,267 $719,995,929 ($315,316,662) (28.0) 162 Home Furnishings Stores $266,497,366 $253,806,631 $12,690,735 2.4 210 Electronics & Appliance Stores $779,650,061 $1,050,461,363 ($270,811,302) (14.8) 423 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores $1,467,246,241 $1,520,171,215 ($52,924,974) (1.8) 557 Bldg Material&Supplies Dealers $1,324,440,594 $1,439,612,015 ($115,171,421) (4.2) 476 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $142,805,647 $80,559,200 $62,246,447 27.9 81 Food & Beverage Stores $3,305,974,043 $3,075,748,654 $230,225,389 3.6 745 Grocery Stores $2,719,393,786 $2,448,193,873 $271,199,913 5.2 361 Specialty Food Stores $168,265,811 $171,408,676 ($3,142,865) (0.9) 187 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $418,314,446 $456,146,105 ($37,831,659) (4.3) 197 Health & Personal Care Stores $1,444,064,248 $1,457,795,870 ($13,731,622) (0.5) 511 Gasoline Stations $2,267,501,559 $1,113,835,678 $1,153,665,881 34.1 247 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $1,142,973,158 $1,663,179,726 ($520,206,568) (18.5) 1,060 Cl othi ng Stores $774,154,614 $1,257,723,092 ($483,568,478) (23.8) 725 Shoe Stores $161,601,699 $177,000,222 ($15,398,523) (4.5) 120 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores $207,216,845 $228,456,412 ($21,239,567) (4.9) 215 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores $647,455,533 $812,335,807 ($164,880,274) (11.3) 531 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores $561,028,522 $691,618,003 ($130,589,481) (10.4) 438 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $86,427,011 $120,717,804 ($34,290,793) (16.6) 93 General Merchandise Stores $3,683,528,480 $3,118,258,947 $565,269,533 8.3 300 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. $2,768,054,392 $2,128,058,707 $639,995,685 13.1 103 Other General Merchandise Storess $915,474,088 Miscellaneous Store Retailers .. $799,727,609 $990,200,240 $848,126,062 ($74,726,152) ($48,398,453) (3.9) (2.9) 197 998 Florists $45,527,447 $63,012,000 ($17,484,553) (16.1) 107 Office Supplies,Stationary&Gift Sts $167,282,748 $177,651,900 ($10,369,152) (3.0) 265 Used Merchandise Stores $104,884,138 $121,419,040 ($16,534,902) (7.3) 163 Other Miscellaneous Stor Do'ses $482,033,276 $486,043,122 ($4,009,846) (0.4) 463 Nonstore Retailers $340,386,564 $1,588,365,726 ($1,247,979,162) (64.7) 152 Electronic Shopping&Mail- $264,788,750 $1,542,255,474 ($1,277,466,724) (70.7) 95 Vending Machine Operators $15,365,586 $18,042,785 ($2,677,199) (8.0) 19 Direct Selling Establishments $60,232,228 $28,067,467 $32,164,761 36.4 38 Food Services & Drinking Places $2,310,477,107 $2,812,574,817 ($502,097,710) (9.8) 2,888 Special Food Services $57,042,060 $85,543,664 ($28,501,604) (20.0) 94 Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages $138,339,841 $116,543,152 $21,796,689 8.6 127 Restaurants/Other Eating Places $2,115,095,206 $2,610,488,001 ($495,392,795) (10.5) 2,667 Note: All figures quoted in 2016 dollars. Supply (retail sales ) estimates sales to consumers by establishments, sales to businesses are excluded. Demand (retail potential) estimates theexpected amoutspent by consumers ata retail establishment. Leakage/Surplus factor measures the relationship between supply and demand at ranges from+100 (total leakage) to -100 (total surplus). A positivevalue represents "leakage" of retai I opportunity outside the trade area. A negative value represents a surplus of retail sales, a market where customers are drawn in from outside the trade area. Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Selected Available Office Space December 19, 2017 Page 48 Table 25 presents office space that is currently available for lease as of mid-November 2017 in the communities surrounding Navarre including properties in Long Lake, Mound, Orono, Shore- wood, Spring Park, Tonka Bay, and Wayzata. A total of 26 properties available for lease were identified. • The selected properties range in lease rate from $10.03 Net to $45.00 NNN. • A majority (18/26) of the properties are in Wayzata and none are within Navarre. • The space available in the properties ranges from 150 square feet to 160,000 square feet. N"�-G • Metro -wide, the office market continues to be soft with vacancies averaging between 15% and 18% in the Twin Cities. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. TABLE 25 SELECTED AVAILABLE OFFICE SPACE OUTSIDE NAVARRE $13.33 FSG Ye Yea Property Name/ Address City Bui 1850 Wayzata Blvd Long Lake 19 1850 Wayzata Blvd Minimum Maximum 432 Mill St Long Lake 19 432 Mill St SF 7,500 2350 Wayzata Blvd Long Lake 19 2350 Wayzata Blvd 576 5,576 Freshwater Building Orono 19 2500 Shadywood Rd 980 51,149 Casco Run Orono 19 3701 Shoreline Dr 1,000 1,000 Orono Medical & Dental Center Orono 20 2765 Kelley Pkwy 2,477 26,036 South Lake Office Building Shorewood 2 23505 Smithtown Rd 200 7,112 Tonka Business Center Spring Park 19 4154Shoreline Dr 6,854 24,024 Twelve Oaks Office Center Bldg 5 Wayzata 19 1001 Twelve Oaks Center Or 195 1,825 Twelve Oaks Office Center Bldg 4 Wayzata 19 901 Twelve Oaks Center Dr 4,040 35,000 Twelve Oaks Office Center Bldg 1 Wayzata 19 600 Twelve Oaks Center Dr 299 496 Twelve Oaks Office Center Bldg 2 Wayzata 19 700Twelve Oaks Center Dr 8,639 37,806 Wayzata Crossings Wayzata 19 1415 E Wayzata Blvd 150 150 Twelve Oaks Office Center Bldg 3 Wayzata 19 801 Twelve Oaks Ctr 10,648 A 16,000 Wayzata Executive Park Bldg 3 Wayzata 20 1907 Wayzata Blvd 192 192 Wayzata Executive Park Bldg 2 Wayzata 20 1905 Wayzata Blvd 6,330 25,000 Arne Professional Building Wayzata 19 101 W Lake St 2,466 2,466 100 West Lake Wayzata 19 100 Lake St 11,971 28,000 Wayzata Specialty Center Wayzata N/ 1120 E Wayzata Blvd 1,895 1,895 Wayzata Marquee Place Wayzata 19 641 Lake St 445 Lake St E Wayzata 19 445 Lake St E 701 Building Wayzata 20 701 Lake St 201 Lake Street-Westway Building Wayzata 19 201 Lake St 326-332 Broadway Ave Wayzata N/ 326 Broadway Ave 315 Lake St E Wayzata 2 315 Lake St Piper Jaffray Building Wayzata 19 319 Barry Ave Sources: Xceligent; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC 05 37 90 74 82 03 007 53 78 78 79 77 70 78 01 Ol 96 97 87 88 04 97 009 88 $13.33 FSG N/A $20.83 Gross N/A Negotiable 6,368 $17.50 Gross 1,000 Minimum Maximum Available It Bldg Size Divisible Contiguous SF 7,500 130 275 275 1,728 576 5,576 576 18,000 200 480 980 51,149 295 2,013 6,368 6,474 1,000 1,000 1,000 16,800 2,477 2,477 2,477 26,036 330 673 1,003 142,156 200 7,112 7,112 24,024 732 1,756 6,854 24,024 261 1,500 6,355 23,266 195 1,825 6,841 23,220 209 1,758 4,040 35,000 840 7,000 7,840 24,024 299 496 1,135 42,110 1,910 5,168 8,639 37,806 5,979 5,979 5,979 9,316 150 150 150 12,000 6,355 10,648 10,648 A 16,000 1,500 16,000 16,000 56,000 192 192 192 37,710 3,000 6,330 6,330 25,000 3,005 3,005 3,005 33,220 2,466 2,466 2,466 A 17,899 2,420 6,541 11,971 28,000 2,055 2,055 2,055 29,754 1,895 1,895 1,895 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC December 19, 2017 Page 49 Vacancy Lease Rate N/A $13.33 FSG N/A $20.83 Gross N/A Negotiable 6,368 $17.50 Gross 1,000 $20.00 Gross 2,477 $20.00 N N N 1,003 $27.61- $27.64 Gross 0 $10.50 NNN 5,098 $10.03 - $12.53 Net 6,355 $10.03 - $15.00 Net 5,793 $11.03 - $15.70 Net 3,437 $11.25 - $13.80 Net 7,000 $12.00- $17.00 Net 1,135 $12.53 Net 6,729 $16.00 NNN 5,979 $16.00 NNN 150 $24.00 N N N 0 $30.00 Net 16,000 $30.00 N N N 192 $35.00 Gross 0 $40.00 - $45.00 N N N 3,005 $48.00 Gross 2,466 Negotiable 11,971 Negotiable 0 Negotiable NNN 1,895 Negotiable NNN Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 50 Selected Available Retail Space Table 27 presents retail space that is currently available for lease as of mid-November 2017 in the area outside Navarre including properties in Long Lake, Mound, Orono, Shorewood, Spring Park, Tonka Bay, and Wayzata. A total of 18 properties available for lease were identified. • The selected properties range in lease rate from $12.00 Net to $40.00 Net. • A majority (8/18) of the properties are in Wayzata and none are within Navarre. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 26 SELECTED AVAILABLE OFFICE SPACE OUTSIDE NAVARRE Number of Properties Average Average City Available For Lease Bldg Size Available SF Lease Rates Long Lake 3 9,076 610 $13.33 FSG - $20.83 Gross Mound 0 N/A N/A N/A Orono 3 24,807 3,281 $17.50 Gross - $20.00 NNN Shorewood 1 26,036 1,003 $27.61 Gross - $27.64 Gross Spring Park 1 142,156 7,112 $10.50 NNN Tonka Bay 0 N/A N/A N/A Wayzata 18 27,687 5,689 $10.03 Net- $45.00 NNN Sources: Xceligent; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC Selected Available Retail Space Table 27 presents retail space that is currently available for lease as of mid-November 2017 in the area outside Navarre including properties in Long Lake, Mound, Orono, Shorewood, Spring Park, Tonka Bay, and Wayzata. A total of 18 properties available for lease were identified. • The selected properties range in lease rate from $12.00 Net to $40.00 Net. • A majority (8/18) of the properties are in Wayzata and none are within Navarre. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber December 19, 2017 WSB & Associates, Inc. Page 51 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 27 SELECTED FOR LEASE RETAIL SPACE OUTSIDE NAVARRE Gross Operating Bldg Land Year Minimum Maximum Available Expenses/S Tax Property Name/ Address City Specific Use Size Area Built Tenancy Divisible Contiguous SF Vacancy Lease Rate Taxes/SF F Year 2073AWayzata Blvd Long Lake Freestanding 2,587 98,446 2005 Single -Tenant 1,000 2,587 2,587 2,587 $12.00-$20.00 NNN $5.28 $5.55 2016 2073 W Wayzata Blvd Mound Marketplace Mound Neighborhood Ctr 52,879 270,407 2003 Multi -Tenant 1,597 2,985 6,580 6,580 $18.00 - $22.00 Net $4.95 $3.90 2017 2131 Commerce Blvd Commerce Place - Retail Mound Conv/Strip Ctr 40,053 14,375 1986 Multi -Tenant 839 17,504 28,789 28,789 $8.00 - $18.00 Net $1.77 $2.98 2017 2200 Commerce Blvd Shorewood Village Center Shorewood Neighborhood Ctr 62,308 286,189 1975 Multi -Tenant 1,419 3,393 6,435 6,435 Negotiable NNN $4.71 $6.49 2017 23470 Highway Waterford Center Shorewood Conv/Strip Ctr 22,930 147,233 1994 Multi -Tenant 1,500 5,706 7,206 7,206 $16.50 NNN N/A $7.23 2016 19905 Highway Marina Center Spring Park Conv/Strip Ctr 47,135 507,038 1964 Multi -Tenant 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 $12.00 Net $3.85 $2.12 2016 4669 Shoreline Dr Lakeview Lofts Spring Park Neighborhood Ctr 60,000 24,019 2005 Multi -Tenant 3,964 3,964 3,964 3,964 $23.00 NNN N/A N/A N/A 4100 Spring St Marina Center- Pad Site Spring Park Freestanding 9,120 87,120 N/A Multi -Tenant 1,680 9,120 9,120 9,120 Negotiable N/A N/A N/A 4659 Shoreline Dr Tonka Village Shopping Center Tonka Bay Neighborhood Ctr 25,000 273,992 N/A Single -Tenant 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 Negotiable NNN $3.45 $4.04 2017 24324 Smithtown Rd Tonka Village Shopping Center Tonka Bay Neighborhood Ctr 37,126 283,140 1959 Multi -Tenant 1,823 7,441 9,264 9,264 Negotiable NNN $3.45 $4.04 2017 5609 Manitou Rd Wayzata Marquee Place Wayzata Mixed Use 72,000 24,394 1946 Multi -Tenant 600 1,289 1,889 1,889 $25.00 NNN $12.00 $8.68 2017 603 Lake St E 1330 Wayzata Blvd Wayzata General 4,500 29,621 N/A Multi -Tenant 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 $40.00 Net $3.00 $7.00 2017 1330 Wayzata Blvd 240 Minnetonka Unit 103 Wayzata Other 1,094 N/A N/A Single -Tenant 1,094 1,094 1,094 1,094 $25.00 NNN N/A N/A N/A 240 Minnetonka The Promenade of Wayzata Wayzata Community Ctr 108,739 632,491 2014 Multi -Tenant 984 20,588 65,665 65,665 Negotiable NNN $11.72 $4.69 2017 801 E Lake St Wayzata Village Shoppes Wayzata Neighborhood Ctr 43,127 119,790 1964 Multi -Tenant 1,215 Lais 1,215 1,215 Negotiable NNN $7.29 $4.25 2017 812 Lake St 240 Minnetonka Unit 102 Wayzata Other 734 25,000 N/A Multi -Tenant 734 734 734 734 $25.00 NNN N/A N/A N/A 240 Minnetonka Ave S Colonial Square Shopping Center Wayzata Neighborhood 38 325,393 1959 Multi -Tenant 1,313 1,313 1,313 1,313 Negotiable NNN $8.85 $3.69 2017 1125 Wayzata Blvd Cross Creek Shoppes Wayzata General 10,145 28,314 1968 Multi -Tenant 1,239 2,994 4,233 4,233 Negotiable NNN N/A $16.00 2017 748 E Lake St Sources: Xceligent; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Conclusions December 19, 2017 Page 52 The impetus for this study was to complete a high-level initial analysis of the future develop- ment potential in Navarre. Previous sections examined the demographic, economic, and mar- ket performance of various real estate uses in the Navarre area. This section summarizes the market potential findings and makes recommendations on the most appropriate product types that may be captured in Navarre. Potential Redevelopment Sites Maxfield Research & Consulting, together with WSB, identified potential areas is Navarre that could support redevelopment. Table 28 identifies parcels of interest sorted into seven poten- tial redevelopment areas. The table shows the parcel address and PID, owner, acreage, land use, last date of sale (if applicable), and current market values and property taxes. The redevel- opment areas range in size from 1.86 acres up to 6.78 acres. The following summarizes the re- development sites and the potential land uses that could result. • Site #1: The first site is the western -most site in Navarre located just north of Shoreline Drive and south of the 6.4 -acre Hennepin County property. This redevelopment consists of five parcels that comprise about 3.7 acres and include a mix of commercial and resi- dential properties. Most of the property is about 200 -feet deep off Shoreline Drive. Recommended land uses could include o Mid -rise housing r,%, 4,00 o Stand-alone commercial sites o Small retail center Because of the traffic along Shoreline Drive, this site would be accessed by a "right -in right -out" and could experience a longer wait time to make a left turn out of the site. Site #2: This property consists of three properties that collectively are about 4.5 -acres. These sites are not presently on the tax rolls and are either tax forfeited properties or owned by the City of Orono. The site is wooded and located directly to the north of the Navarre Fire Department and west of a for -sale townhome development. The site also abuts the railroad track to the north. Recommended land uses could include: o For -sale twin homes or villas o Attached for -sale townhomes o Mid -rise housing MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Page 53 TABLE 28 PARCELS OF INTEREST NAVARRE Year Market Taxes Number Address Owner Name Land Type Built Sale Date Sale Price Acres Value Total Total Potential Redeviopment 1 Area 1 3890Shoreline Dr EJ &MJ Held Residential 1991 Mar -93 $105,000 0.68 $320,000 $3,361 2 3860 Shoreline Dr David Umbehocker Commercial -Preferred 1930 N/A $0 0.64 $196,000 $5,272 3 3850 Shoreline Dr Leeryan Of Minneapolis LLC Commercial -Preferred 1987 Nov -02 $790,000 0.78 $759,000 $23,802 4 3800 Shoreline Dr M E Brewer& B LBrewer Commercial -Preferred 1956 Jun -01 $239,900 0.70 $290,000 $8,366 5 38 Address Unassigned City Of Orono Vacant Land -Residential N/A N/A $0 0.86 $0 $0 Total 3.66 $1,565,000 $40,801 Potential Reclevlopment 6 Area 2 38Address Unassigned Hennepin Forfeited Land Vacant Land -Residential N/A N/A $0 0.10 $0 $0 7 38 Address Unassigned Hennepin Forfeited Land Vacant Land -Residential N/A N/A $0 0.15 $0 $0 8 3770Shoreline Dr City of Orono Commercial -Preferred 2003 N/A $0 4.33 $0 $0 Total 4.58 $0 $0 Potential Redevelopment 9 Area 3 3542 Shoreline Dr Shoreline -Navarre LLC Commercial -Preferred 1986 Sep -04 $35,000 0.46 $528,000 $16,199 10 3502 Shoreline Dr Lowell RZitzloff Commercial -Non Preferred 1950 Apr -82 $60,981 0.31 $289,000 $9,512 11 3574ShorelineDr R L & G H Plaisted Commercial -Preferred 1959 Jan -03 $561,705 0.47 $183,000 $4,844 12 3572 Shoreline Dr Leis In Grace LLC Commercial -Preferred 1947 Aug -13 $250,000 0.31 $226,000 $6,260 13 3496 Shoreline Dr Skyt Properties LLC Commercial -Preferred 1979 Nov -13 $320,000 0.31 $339,000 $9,979 Total 1.86 $1,565,000 $46,793 Potential Redevelopment 14 Area 4 3416 Shoreline Dr Germ -Tom Partnership Commercial -Preferred 1955 Jul -87 $360,000 0.54 $581,000 $18,368 15 3400 Shoreline Dr 3400 Properties LLC Commercial -Preferred 1954 Feb -07 $375,000 0.29 $643,000 $19,984 16 3440 Shoreline Dr Richard W Bloomquist Residential 1951 Aug -99 $122,000 0.15 $215,000 $3,984 17 2377 Shadywood Rd Lake Country Corp Investment Commercial -Preferred 2005 Sep -15 $387,000 0.24 $378,000 $11,262 18 38 Address Unassigned City Of Orono Vacant Land -Commercial N/A N/A $0 0.47 $0 $0 19 3360 Shoreline Dr Leroy David Koehnen Commercial -Preferred 1969 Oct -84 $155,000 0.44 $383,000 $11,427 20 2385 Shadywood Rd S H Schmidt/SJ Schl tT?4--,,, Commercial -Preferred 1937 N/A $0 0.18 $197,000 $5,305 * 3400Shoreline Dr 3400 Properties LLC Commercial -Preferred 1954 Feb -07 $375,000 0.29 $643,000 $19,984 Total 2.60 $2,397,000 $90,315 Potential Redevelopment 21 Area 5 2474 Carman St W E Edwards & D M Edwards Tr Residential Lake Shore 1990 N/A $0 2.00 $1,130,000 $13,601 22 2480 Carman St R A Edwards Et Al Trustees Residential Lake Shore 1965 N/A $0 2.24 $1,116,000 $13,418 23 3465 Shoreline Dr Navarre Realty LLC Apartment 1952 Jan -80 $210,000 0.96 $795,000 $17,384 24 3423 Shoreline Dr Brook Investment Group LLC Commercial -Preferred 1952 Nov -07 $1,700,000 1.58 $782,000 $24,688 Total 6.78 $3,823,000 $69,091 Potential Redevelopment 25 Area 6 2455 Shadywood Rd Jeanne M Englund Vacant Land -Commercial N/A N/A $0 0.88 $137,000 $3,432 26 2465 Shadywood Rd David J Delaney Trustee Seasonal -Residential Rec 1920 Dec -09 $205,000 1.34 $164,000 $1,766 Total 2.22 $301,000 $5,199 Potential Redevelopment 27 Area 7 2520 Shadywood Rd Ugorets 8098 LLC Vacant Land -Residential N/A N/A $0 2.63 $0 $0 Total 2.63 $0 $0 *The Narrows Saloon Source: Realist Tax; Maxfield Research & Consulting,LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Page 53 • Fri awl �• =tom, ti •' J• �. - �,J���,� .44 LL. �, �}; : " � '1 �,. 1101110 ■111 11 i�Q��►, ,�.f,i oil ■111■ �11o11■If I► •" � ■ a. X11■1� � - � i , Potential _ Site Parcels The Narrows Saloon`l .. LN Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. Sites of Interest for F December 19, 2017 Page 55 2 3 11 12 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 56 14 lb 19 23 MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 24 Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 57 27 • Site #3: The third redevelopment area consists of five commercial properties that make-up 1.86 total acres; the smallest redevelopment area. Most of the commercial buildings are dated as they were constructed between 1947 and 1986. All of the prop- erties have frontage on Shoreline Drive and are surrounding by housing land uses to the north of the parcels. This area would have access and visibility to Shoreline Drive mo- torists; however, it will be challenging making left turns out of the site. Recommended land uses could include: o Mid -rise housing o Modest commercial development • Site #4: Located at the northwest quadrant of Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road; this redevelopment area has the potential be the "gateway" into the Navarre neighbor- hood. The property is at "main and main" and benefits from higher traffic counts and excellent access and visibility from both roadways. As a result, this site could be the cor- nerstone for future redevelopment in Navarre. Collectively the site is 2.6 acres across eight parcels. Most of the existing uses are commercial, however there are two com- mercial uses located in low-density residential structures. Because of this location, this site should be the top priority for attracting redevelopment in Navarre. Recommended land uses could include: o Commercial concentration —front loaded design towards the roadways (parking in rear) o Mixed-use or multi -use development with a mid -rise housing component MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber December 19, 2017 WSB & Associates, Inc. Page 58 • Site #5. This potential redevelopment area also has Shoreline Drive frontage, however on the south side of the roadway. The site is anchored by the east parcel that contains 1.58 acres and is adjacent to the Lunds/Byerly's. The site encompasses four parcels with 6.78 -acres; however, two the properties are zoned residential lake shore that could be subdivided and maintained by the current land owner. As a result, the total developable is about 5.75 acres should the lakeshore properties subdivide the property to align with the two other commercial properties. Recommended land uses could include: o Commercial development o Mid -rise housing development o Mixed-use development featuring housing and first -level commercial space • Site #6. Along Shadywood Road about one block south of the Lunds/Byerly's are two parcels that comprise 2.2 acres. Both properties have thick vegetation to the west and could be combined to create a more marketable site. Recommended land uses could include: o Stand-alone commercial building o Smaller mid -rise housing development. • Site #7. A vacant 2.6 -acre site is in the far southeastern boundary of Navarre area. The property is east of Shadywood Road and south of the five -acre commercial site located directly north of the site. The site has the potential to be the gateway into Navarre for the northbound traveler on Shadywood Road. Recommended land uses could include: o Stand-alone commercial development o Mid -rise housing development o Mixed-use development— 1st floor commercial with housing MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber December 19, 2017 WSB & Associates, Inc. Page 59 Recommended Real Estate Types The previous section outlined the seven potential redevelopment areas. Many of the proper- ties could encompass a few different land use types given their location, access, and surround- ing land uses. The recommended product types that are recommended include: • Retail: As illustrated in the earlier leakage figures, Navarre and the Lake Minnetonka area is under -retailed. Navarre has an opportunity to capture these retail sales on prop- erty either Shoreline Drive or Shadywood Road. Among all the redevelopment areas, the site at the northwest quadrant of Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road has the greatest potential to capture commercial tenants. However, this site will likely need to attract regional or national tenants given the site acquisition and development costs at this location. These credit -worthy tenants will have the means to pay higher lease rates that will be required to support redevelopment. Other sites in Navarre are more likely to cater to "niche or boutique" retailers that may have fled other higher -rent properties in other Lake Minnetonka communities. Because the Navarre area and Orono show leakage in nearly every category of retail sales; Navarre can support more retail than what could be developed given the acreage available within redevelopment sites identified. Several of the identified sites could support retail and there would still be excess demand for retail goods and services. Re- development sites #4 and #5 will be the most attractive sites for retail tenants. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC TABLE 29 SUMMARY OF REDEVELOPMENT SITE POTENTIAL USES Combined Acres 93M Commercial Mixed Use/ Component Multi -Use 1 3.66 x x 2 4.58 x x 3 1.86 x x 4 2.60 x x x x 5 6.78 x x x x 6 2.22 x x 7 2.63 x x x Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC Recommended Real Estate Types The previous section outlined the seven potential redevelopment areas. Many of the proper- ties could encompass a few different land use types given their location, access, and surround- ing land uses. The recommended product types that are recommended include: • Retail: As illustrated in the earlier leakage figures, Navarre and the Lake Minnetonka area is under -retailed. Navarre has an opportunity to capture these retail sales on prop- erty either Shoreline Drive or Shadywood Road. Among all the redevelopment areas, the site at the northwest quadrant of Shoreline Drive and Shadywood Road has the greatest potential to capture commercial tenants. However, this site will likely need to attract regional or national tenants given the site acquisition and development costs at this location. These credit -worthy tenants will have the means to pay higher lease rates that will be required to support redevelopment. Other sites in Navarre are more likely to cater to "niche or boutique" retailers that may have fled other higher -rent properties in other Lake Minnetonka communities. Because the Navarre area and Orono show leakage in nearly every category of retail sales; Navarre can support more retail than what could be developed given the acreage available within redevelopment sites identified. Several of the identified sites could support retail and there would still be excess demand for retail goods and services. Re- development sites #4 and #5 will be the most attractive sites for retail tenants. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 60 • Office: An office building with a build -to -suit tenant would be an excellent land use for several of the identified sites. However, this will be predicated on the ability to secure a single tenant who will commit to a built -to -suit office structure. The multi -tenant office market continues to be very soft with high vacancies and with rents that cannot support new construction costs. The office market continues to be the soft spot in the Twin Cit- ies commercial real estate market and that is likely to continue in the short-term as companies squeeze square footages and more employees work remotely. Since the of- fice market is the weakest commercial real estate product type in the Metro Area; office space will be more challenging to develop in Navarre unless a single -tenant user seeks out new construction. • Hospitality: The Twin Cities is experiencing a major building boom in the hospitality sec- tor due to a variety of conditions: 2018 Super Bowl, future Final Four, and improved economic conditions. However, with all the new supply occupancies have peaked and the hotel market is at equilibrium. If a site had lake access a small, boutique hotel could be considered in Navarre; however, since a lake site is unavailable we do not recom- mend a hotel concept at any of the identified locations. • For -Sale Townhomes: Because townhomes require a lower density than traditional mul- tifamily housing; most of the sites would not be well-suited for townhomes. Townhome land costs are usually lower than other multifamily densities hence the financial return on townhomes would be lower than other housing types located in multi -story con- cepts. However, the site just north of the fire station would make an excellent location for for -sale housing — either a townhome, twinhome, or villa style concept. The site would be well-received for a for -sale housing concept. Based on the site acreage of about 4.6 sites; this site may be able to accommodate upwards of 35 to 45 attached townhome units. • For -Sale Condominiums: The condominium market is ripe for new development as the market was hit hard from the recession and from the lack of new construction from the state law governing condominium development. However, this past year the Minnesota Legislature recently modified the condominium state statute that is resulting in condo- minium developers looking to re-enter the market. New condo construction has fo- cused on the upper -end of the market in Downtown Wayzata and Downtown Minneap- olis. Condominiums in Orono would be well-received and would provide an excellent product for existing residents to downsize from larger lake homes for maintenance -free living. As a result, we find a condominium development would be well-received in Na- varre and would serve a niche in the marketplace. Suburban condominium development should be able to support densities of about 20 to 30 units per acre. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Mr. Eric Zweber WSB & Associates, Inc. December 19, 2017 Page 61 Senior Housing: Long-term the senior housing outlook is very promising given the aging of the population and future demographic shifts. Orono and the Lake Minnetonka area has an older demographic with significant growth in the 65+ population. However, there are several service -based senior housing communities located within five miles of Navarre that would compete with a new development in Navarre. At that same time, there may be an opportunity for active -adult products such as an age -restricted rental, for -sale 55+ condominium, or senior cooperative. However, the Navarre area can likely support one active adult product in the short-term. Suburban senior housing projects are averaging about 25 units or more per acre across the Metro Area. Rental Housing: Navarre and Orono have few rental properties; the City of Orono has an 85% home ownership rate and the majority of rentals are located in single-family housing stock. The Twin Cities is experiencing a major rental housing building boom as rental housing has been a preferred asset class over the past seven years, however the majority of new construction has been located in locations closer to the core. The Na- varre area may be able to support one rental housing development; however, because of development costs a new rental concept would have high rents targeting lifestyle renters. Many of these renters could be from the 55+ demographic who want to down- size from their single-family home. Rental housing could be developed in a stand-alone building or as part of a mixed-use development with first -level commercial space. New suburban rental properties in the Metro Area vary considerably between the inner - ring communities and the outer -ring communities. Densities closer to the core are aver- aging over 50 units per acre; whereas densities in the third -tiers and beyond are averag- ing 25 to 40 units per acre. Combined with properties in the two core cities; the average density for new apartments in the entire Metro Area is 74 units per acre for all new de- velopment in 2017. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC Navarre Community Engagement Open House: November 16, 2017 Drive-thru Old growth woods Small Crossroads of lake (2) Up north feeling Autooart store central Community Text Responses Small town feel (3) You know everyone The new remodeled storefronts of Narrows is a nice look Walking all year round - sidewalks clean and plowed in winter Everything you need right there - Lund's, liquor store, gas station Location (easy drive to downtown Minneapolis, center of Lake Minnetonka, urban yet woodsy feel) Dakota trail (3) Lake `��eec s Can walk to fill ma aiefrom home Lund's Narrows ora Create some character for Navarre - it is a blank slate Lighting - more pedestrian (2) Streetscape - planters, Christmas trees, benches Crosswalk - very dangerous Make it pedestrian friendly! (4) More of a town square feeling _ Nicer storefronts _ Create a sense of place _ Increase local businesses and move toward an exterior design patate over time _ Landscape on County Road 15 - too much concrete Restaurant or coffee shop 0 Highest Priority Planned for a future WW where it was safe to walk and bike and had a zoning/use code that favored local retail like a Made Navarre Continue the tradition of Navarre Restiral bike shop unique! We need more businesses that serve the community not office space, not apartment buildings or senior living - seniors do not spend any money, they will not revitalize the town - please don't make Design standards, the same mistakees as Spring Park or service businesses Wayzata - tax income over common sense. for area residents, Excelsior is a good example, charming sit down restaurant Design standards Walkability and They planned for a future where people were walking and biking - not driving! Navarre Community Engagement Open House: November 16, 2017 Spectrum Survey o�° Average Ranking (Strongly Agree = 1; Strongly Category by Average Percent Agree or Disagree = 5) Ranking Strongly Agree I plan to live in Navarre for the forseeable future. 1.5 100% I would recommend Navarre as a great place to live. 1.9 90% Navarre needs more businesses. 2.0 89% Sidewalks and trails are well-maintained. 2.7 56% There is adequate parking. 3.0 • • 50% 1 can walk to the places I need to go. 2.9 • • 44% Navarre is the Downtown of Orono. 3.1 • • 44% Navarre should be vibrant and active day, night, and on weekends. 2.8 44% There is a strong sense of community. 3.4 27% I feel comfortable as a pedestrian. 3.7 33% There is a need for greater variety in housing options. 3.9 14% Navarre needs more residents. 3.6 11% o�° Navarre Community Engagement Survey Monkey Responses Survey Monkey Online Engagement Please check the following boxes that accurately describe you Number Percent I am a resident of 1 2 Navarre 20 77% 1 am a resident outside 3 7 of Navarre, but in 4 3 Orono 4 151 1 am not a resident of 11 Average Orono 2 8% 1 own or operate a 15 62.50% business in Navarre 1 4% Rate your desire to see regular community events in Navarre from 1-5 (1 = not at all desired, 5 = very desired) Number 0 0 Annual Festival 1 2 Quarterly/Holiday 2 5 shopping events 3 7 Races/Events 4 3 centered around the 51 9 Dakota Rail Trail 11 Average 1 3.4615385 What types of events would you like to see in Navarre? Number Percent Annual Festival 15 62.50% Quarterly/Holiday shopping events 10 41.67% Races/Events centered around the Dakota Rail Trail 11 45.83% Enhanced branding for Navarre 15 62.50% Cultural events 1 71 29.17% Navarre Community Engagement Survey Monkey Responses Survey Monkey Online Engagement Do you consider Navarre the Downtown of 0 Orono? Number Percent Number Percent Yes 16 61.54% No 3 4 15.38% 1 have not thought 8 57.89% 5 about it 36.84% 6 23.08% Overall, please rate your level of concern regarding the teardown and rebuild of single-family homes in Navarre from 1-5 (1 = not at all concerned, 5 = very concerned). Number 0 2 Number Percent 1 8 2 4 3 3 4 8 57.89% 5 0 36.84% Building height Average 1 2.28 Regarding the tear down and rebuild of single-family homes in Navarre, which of the following issues are important to you? Number Percent Preservation of existing neighborhood character 11 57.89% Building massing 7 36.84% Building height 9 47.37% Loss of affordable housing 7 36.84% Issues related to construction 8 42.11% Navarre Community Engagement Survey Monkey Responses Survey Monkey Online Engagement Rate your desire for new multi -family residential and commercial development in Navarre from 1-5 (1 = not at all desired, 5 = very desired). Number 0 3 desirable? 1 8 4 2 4 3 2 4 5 15 5 4 Average 1 2.384615 Rate your desire for new multi- family residential and commercial development in the City of Orono from 1-5 (1= not at all desired, 5 = Number 0 2 desirable? 11 4 4 2 5 31 4 4 7 15 5 4 Average 1 2.8461538 ora Regarding new multi -family residential and commercial development in Navarre, which of the following characteristics are desirable? Number Percent Affordable housing 4 16.67% Provision of additional business types and services 15 62.50% Places to go and things to do in Navarre 21 87.50% Increased population density 7 29.17 0 Building heights of 3 stories or more 4 16.67% Navarre Community Engagement Survey Monkey Responses Survey Monkey Online Engagement Regarding new multi -family residential and commercial development in the City of Orono, which of the following characteristics are desired? Number Percent Affordable housing 5 22.73% business types and 13 59.09% Places to go and things No concerns, but single family housing ONLY to do in Orono 19 86.36% Increased population I'm for anything that improves the quality and density 3 13.64% Building heights of 3 NOT multi -family residential any place good. stories or more 4 18.18% Comments Just like Minneapolis we need revitalization - main concern is pressure on existing infrastructure, Wide variety of housing is important tear them down damage to lake, inadequate roads I think its great to have old dilapidated homes New development must conform to the torn down and lovely new single family homes neighborhood current density replace them better support of existing business No concerns, but single family housing ONLY walkability, connection to other neighborhoods and No affordable housing at ALL!! No apartments! (no apartments) amenities I'm for anything that improves the quality and value of the housing stock. Tear downs are NOT multi -family residential any place good. Holiday market, car show... Construction site mtc is important, but easily Outdoor music in the park in the summer weekend if its not broke; don't fix it dealt with afternoons Pedestrian and bike connections across the community I Build more beautiful new homes I I think any and all community events are important t d r 10 imp T T 40 4- J I� t i Navarre Community Engagement Social Pinpoint Map Responses Social Pinpoint Online Engagement Good Location for a new Amenity or Places I Like to Go/Be Amblillik, r Development Really didn't need another auto parts store. Navarre and community can have a better image than 3 gas stations and 2 auto part Put a land bridge over 15 to connect the Great park - wonderful job stores 39 neighborhoods New to area, use all the services, improve Too much concrete, need it developed to store fronts host pop -ups? 3.71 New park location on both sides of the road On the main drag - need better Christmas Would be nice to have a nice entry point and Wasted space/find a better location for co decorations! There were even lights strung better signage at the entry to the trail shop! 0 across the street. Also need pretty planters Beautification of street and sidewalk - Great start with new light fixtures and banners - however, they are too high for pedestrian enjoyment and not at people scale. Need a consistent plan for plantings to create some neighborhood charm and character - I have a design background and have done lots of master planning and lighting for places like Love the trail - non traffic wonderful place to Edinborough Park - Edina, Minneapolis/St. ride, easy accessibility a 491 Paul airport, and landscaping Direct access to Lake Minnetonka in Navarre, Central gathering place 36 either a park or residential development Pedestrian only, like a square, gathering spot, 44 benches/fountain, meeting place Add/develop new businesses on the Dakota 42 Trail Great land to have a walking path to town 45 Navarre Community Engagement Social Pinpoint Map Responses Social Pinpoint Online Engagement Ora In Need better shops - especially on south side 41 of street 43 Sit down restaurant option, nice casual dining More multiple unit housing/city controlled 38 already Empty lot since 1965 tornado, not attractive. Great spot for development. Can't we get Champion auto parts to do something with their building? Disappointed that Patrick's bakery idea was turned down. It was an opportunity to have a slightly more upscale coffee shop/restaurant that is pleasant and 35 not filled with contractors. Ora In Navarre Small Area Plan - Traffic Volumes anka Beach _ JFr ringin HENNEPIN 11 - or Q Y r i r � \ Shorewood l ,Tonka B , w ! 5 •' / iii , November 30, 2017 1:16,000 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 mi 0 0.2 0.4 0.8 km Functional Class Road Review Shoreline Drive (CSAH 15): A -Minor Arterial Shadywood Road (CSAH 19): A -Minor Arterial south of Shoreline Drive; B -Minor Arterial north of Shoreline Drive ORONO L --21Q--0 I 221i1i� 1030 4226 84 3 qo 51 ► O Qfl 5700 14 570# } LO M o >. SPRING 1 0 L9 00 PARK 4 � 0 4150 16400 tg-561 '��100£1 1 00 N ETONKA 6000 14000 1 EACH DEEP] TO MAP C N Forecasted Year 2030 19 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) 2030 Forecast Volume [OR EWOOD 2005 Base Volume ' • Base Volume Is From 2005 Hennepin County Flowmap And Minnesota Dept. Of Transportation Volumes From 2005 2030 Forecasts Incorporate Metropolitan Council Goal Of 1 Doubling Transit Ridership Over The Next 20 Years BAY + REEN OOI EXC E L 4IOR� NWPF N Roadway System Adequacy 2030 Operations era on vw�,,.rc.p.=.p aaeo .- Roadway Network N Possible Congesfion (1-1.20) N Probable Congestion (1.20) 0 2030 Forecasted ADT Range \\\ reeaN �anmrs�y �zope�w a� reearrya. Planning Level Urban Roadway Capacities Daily Two-way Volume (vehicles) Lower Higher Facility Type Threshold Threshold Two lane undivided 10,000 12,000 Two lane divided or Three lane undivided Arterials Four lane undivided Four lane divided or five lane undivided Four lane freeway 15,000 17,000 18,000 22,000 28,000 32,000 60,000 80,000 Freewa�i Six lane freeway 90,000 1 120,000 1 Eight lane freeway or Calculated on a segment by higher segment basis Choice of Roadway Section Based on ADT and Access Spacing --------------------------------------- 6 -Lane UnMee •..�:m snum�axrs aayc Plane Aaesse o, 5 10 Avt �xmg 660 ft. 1,g Ml J Lane "nd"'dad n -Lam owed L ar.e witli r:�:x rn Ian r: w sna W ders 30' 35 d0' 45' 50' __ 60' 95 330,1 150 R. 7 ,,. 20,40 15.iu'I d i � iu.uc S,ee Practical Operating Ranges fur Roadway Design Types 21 me 3 -Law A Le1K I Lane unidiwkd Divided Project Name: 2151000 CSAH 15 - Geometric improvements to CSAH 19 intersection Funding Start: 2018 Major Program: Public Works Funding Completion: 2019 Department.- Transportation Roads & Bridges Summary: o Revise the intersection of Shoreline Drive (CSAR 15) at Shadywood Road (CSAH 19) in the City of Orono. p -- —UMN GSTON-AVE Purpose & Description: Federal funding was awarded in 2015 through the Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP) to address existing safety concerns. The existing intersection is unique due to the abundance of driveways, including gas stations in three of the quadrants, within close proximity of the intersection. The proposed project will improve safety and traffic j L-YFt1G,AVE— �;, operations by implementing a new striping configuration on Shadywood Road (CSAH 19) to provide left-tum lanes, installing flashing yellow arrows to better facilitate left-turning movements, and eliminating channelized right-turn ORONO islands to provide traffic calming whenever feasible. The project will also include a replacement of the traffic signal t i� system that has reached the end of its service life and an upgrade of the ADA accommodations to ensure accessibility. snag ► ^"' er�o� O\fm ko 1- rsnas~ REVENUE'S Budget.taDaLr . Acf 8i EncTo=Daie _ . y13alance :zolcBudget loss Est(niate 'w,ia��gie ` . ,021 Esdinate 2022`7_stiinatie K I3eyo►xd,zElzz ::Total Property Tax 67,000 (67,000) - - - Federal General - - - 656,000 - - 656,000. Mn/DOT State Aid - Regular - - 250,000 432,000 - - - 682,000' Total - 67,000 (67,000} 2501000 110881000 1,338,000 EXPENDITUP.E5 Badget"t6babe Act:$ Enc'To'Date ;Balance; 2018 Budget, i,... :2Qi9.Estlsnate. OBD titt ale ;;202 Estimate 5 , •2d 2 Esfliia tie.. "•Beyond 2(172 ! Tota! .,':_. Land - - - 200,000 - - - 200,000 Construction - 67,000 (67,000) 11088,000 - 1,088,000 Consulting - 5,213 (5,213) 50,000 - - - 50,000 Equipment - - - - - - Fumishings - - - - Other Costs - - - - - Contingency - - - - - - Tutal 72,213 (72,213) 230,0001 1,088,000 1,338,000 II -30 Project Name: 2151000 CSAH 15 - Geometric improvements to CSAH 19 intersection Funding Start: 2018 Major Program: Public Works Funding Completion: 2019 Department: Transportation Roads & Bridges Current Year's.CIIP'ProcessSummary Budget to Date: 2018 Budget : 2019 Estimate ' 2620m Estiriiate . 2021 °Esti'riute;., . 2022°Estimate1,:`Beyond 2022 Total Department Requested - 250,000 1,088,000 - - - 1,338,000 Administrator Proposed - 250,000 1,088,000 - - - - 1,338,000 CBTF Recommended 250,000 1,088,000 - - - - 1,338,000 Board Approved Final - - - - - - - - Scheduling Milestones (major phases only): Board Resolutions / Supplemental Information: The funding of this project begins in 2019 with completion in 2020. Scoping: 2015-2016 Design: TBD Procurement: TBD Construction: 2019 Completion: TBD Project's Effect on Annual Operating Budget: No impact to department staff or annual operating costs are anticipated by this project. Annual Impact for Requesting Department: 0 sal Annual Impact for all other Depts: 0 \ 1 Total p Changes from Prior CIP: • Added $50,000 consultant cost to reflect experience . Increased construction cost by $193,000 based upon engineer's estimate update . Increased costs financed with State Aid Last Year's CIP Pi%Kms Summary Budgett:to Da 20117 '.2018 2019 :: 2420 2021 Begond Total Department Requested - - - 200,000 895,000 - 1,095,000 Administrator Proposed - - - 200,000 895,000 - 1,095,000 CBTF Recommended - - - 200,000 895,000 - - 1,095,000 Board Approved Final 200,000 895,000 - - 1,095,000 II -31