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FRB: March 16, 2016: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version <br />What's New • What's Next - Site Map - A -Z index - Careers • RSS • All <br />Videos - Current FAQs • Contact Us Saurcr, Adva,�ced Search <br />� .C'{ ►t,<a-i-r6)i'Z <br />About Newt Monetary .~ Banking paymentY Economic Consumer Community Reporting <br />the Fed & Events Policy Information Systema Research information Development Forms Publications <br />Regulation &Data <br />C Federal Open Market Hame > Monetary Policy a Federal Open Market Committee a Meetino calendars. <br />Committee statements. and minutes (2011-2016) > March 15-16 Ft MC M -kng <br />Credit and Liquidity <br />Programs and the Accessible Version <br />Balance Sheet e <br />n Policy <br />implementation <br />Reports Advance release of table 1 of the Summary of Economic Projections to be released <br />with the FOMC minutes <br />- <br />... ....................................... ..................................................................................... .............. ........... ....... <br />..... <br />Percent <br />Median' Central tendencyi <br />Rangel <br />Variable Longer Lo"" Longer <br />2016 ,2017 2018 run 2016 2017 2018 run 2016 2017 2018 run <br />Change :r rea' <br />GOP 2.2 2.. 2.0 2.0 2.1 -2.3 2.0.2.3 1.8-2.1 1.8-2.1 1.9-2.5 1.7-2.3 1.6-2.3 1.8-2.4 <br />December <br />projection, 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.3-2.5 2.0-2.3 1A-2.2 1.8-2.2 2.0-2.7 1.8-2.5 1.7-2,4 1.8.2.3 <br />Unemployment <br />-ate 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.6 -4.8 4.5 - 4.7 4.5-5.0 4.7-5.0 4.5-4.9 4.3-4.9 4.3 - 5.0 4.7-5.8 <br />December <br />projection 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.5-4.84,6-4.8 4.6-5.0 4.8-5.0 4.3-4.9 4.5-5.0 4.5-5.3 4.7-5.8 <br />PCEirf'ation 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 LO -1.8 1.7-2.0 1.9-2.0 2.0 1,9-1.6 1.6-2.0 1.8-2.0 2.0 <br />December <br />projector. 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.2-1.7,1.8-2.0 1.9-2.0 2.0 1.2-2.' 1.7-2.0 1.7.2.1 2.0 <br />Core PCE <br />inflation° 1.6 1.8 2.9 1.4-1.71.7-2.0 1.9-2.0 1,4.2.1 1.6-2.0 1.8-2.0 <br />December <br />pmjec;[on 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.5-1.7'1.7-2.0 1.9-2.0 1.4-2.11.6-2.0 1.7-2.1 <br />Memo: Protected appropriate policy path <br />Federal funds <br />rate 0.9 1.9 3.0 33 0.9-1.4 1.6-2,4 2.5-3.3.3.0-3.5 0.8-1.4;1.11-2.8 2.1-3.9 3A-4.0 <br />DecemCer <br />projection, 1.4 2.4 3.3 3.5 0.9-1.4 1.9-3.0 2.9-3,5.3.3-3.5 0.9-2.' 1.9-3.4 2.1-3.9 3.0-.4.0 <br />Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are <br />percent changes from the fourth quarter cf the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and <br />core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personas consumption <br />expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excSuding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for <br />the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year Indicated. Each participant's projections are based <br />on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer -run projections represent each participant's assessment <br />of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of <br />further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected <br />appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the <br />end of the specked ca;endar year or over the longer run. The December projections were made In conjunction with the <br />meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee an December 15-16, 2015. <br />1. For each period, the median Is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When <br />the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Return to table <br />2. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to <br />table <br />3. The -ange for a variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that vartab;e in <br />that year. Return to table <br />4. Langer -run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected. Return to table <br />Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016-18 <br />andover the long,erun <br />r <br />Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections for years 2016 through 2018 and over the longer run. <br />Actual values for years 2011 through 2015. <br />Changs in real GDP <br />Percent <br />Q Print <br />https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20l 6O3 l6.htm 5/19/2016 <br />