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2024 Hennepin County All -Jurisdiction Hazard Mitigation Plan <br />Volume 2 — Hazard Inventory <br />An additional significant hail event occurred on August 11, 2023. However, that incident did not have as <br />high of impacts as the other events already described. <br />4.3.4.8. Future trends/likelihood of occurrence Ble <br />Research into hail frequencies in a changing climate has been somewhat limited, though modelling efforts <br />have suggested that the frequency of hail may decrease at the expense of more days with straight-line <br />winds, because the atmosphere may favor higher instability but lower -shear profiles as the equator -to - <br />pole temperature gradients weaken (Brooks 2013). Other research has suggested there may be fewer hail <br />days, but more significant events on the days with hail. The bottom line is that significant hailstorms, some <br />significant, are still to be expected into the future. <br />4.3.4.9. Indications and Forecasting <br />Like other severe weather hazards, national responsibility for hail monitoring and forecasting lies with the <br />National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma. The SPC uses three <br />different "products" that detail in anticipation of a severe weather event: <br />Convective Outlooks are spatial products that assign risk categories for severe weather and <br />quantify the varying risk for hail (and other hazards) each day, along with an explanation of the <br />basis for the risk categories assigned. Outlooks are issued for Day 1 (day of), and days 2-8. Only <br />Day-1 outlooks contain hail -specific probabilities. "Day 1" outlooks are issued at 01:00, 08:00, <br />11:30, 15:00 and 20:00 (all times CDT). For Day 1, risk categories include Marginal, Slight, <br />Enhanced, Moderate, and High. These risk categories are assigned based on the probabilities of <br />severe weather (or a particular hazard) occurring with 25 miles of a point. (As shown in Table <br />4.3.4C) <br />101 <br />