11-04-1999 Council Work Session - Laserfiche WebLink

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(NEW TABLE) ORONO POPULATION PROJECTIONS Population Forecasts Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Saturation Urban Area (1/2 & 1 ac.)4,160 3,995 4,135 4,115 4,240 4,495 4,600 Rural Area (2 & 5 ac.)2,627 2,850 3,150 3,685 4,110 4,355 4,400 Total City 6,787 6,845 7485 7,800 8450 8,850 9,000 Household Forecasts Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Saturation Urban Area (1/2 & I ac.)1,316 1,337 1,483 1,491 1,600 1,798 1,840 Rural Area (2 & 5 ac.)830 954 1,130 1,335 1,550 1,742 1,760 Total City 2,146 2491 2,613 2,826 3,150 3,540 3,600 Sources: U.S. Census; Metropolitan Council forecasts; City records and forecasts. Basis for urban/rural division projections: 1. 1999 updated Developable Land Analysis indicates; a.The S acre zone has 148 homes, and land capacity to add 42 more under current zoning standards; at a rate of 2 per year, will be built-out in 2020. 2000: 150 homes x 2.76 persons per HH x 0.94 occupancy = 390 persons 2010: 170 homes x 2.65 persons per HH x 0.94 occupancy = 425 persons 2020: 190 homes x 2.50 persons per HH x 0.94 occupancy = 445 persons The 2-acre zones will have 1270 homes in 2000, and land capacity to add 575 more based on potential conversion of an identified approximately 180 acres from 2-acre to I-acre densities (resulting in a projected 90 units converted to Urban per decade), at a rate of 30 units per year. 2000: 1270 homes x 2.76 persons per HH x 0.94 occupancy = 3295 persons 2010: 1270+300-90 = 1480 persons x 2.65 ppHH x 0.94 occ. = 3685 persons 2020: 1480+275-90 = 1665 persons x 2.50 ppHH x 0.94 occ. = 3910 persons 2000 Rural Population = 390 + 3295 = 3685 2010 P.ural Population = 425 + 3685 = 4110 2020 Rural Population = 445 + 3910 = 4355 CMP 3D -10