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<br /> �"Y'�" �e THE NATION'S IiOUSING prices above as there are,below politan District of Columbia
<br /> ��� ,►�� KENNETH HARNEY The latest pricing data showed (2.2 percent), San Diego
<br /> �� - thatthe medianprice ofall smgle (21 percent) and Detroit
<br /> �. You might have seen family homes resold in the Unit- (lOS percent). Those decreas-
<br /> �_ ��"�� �-�.- ~:', the scary news re- ed States during the third quarter es suggest that prices continue
<br /> � i.� �. � 6 ports jusi beTore was 1.2 percent below the median to outstrip buyers'economic abil-.
<br /> �� �
<br /> Thanksgiving:Hous- during the third quarter of 2005: ity—or willingness—to pay.
<br /> ing prices fell nation- The slippage year to year came
<br /> , wide last quarter, the first such to$2,700. What's the real�ews?
<br /> = � decline since I993. Even grim- Now to the really important
<br /> — -- -� mer, total sales of houses and Decre�ses not common news that got lost in the latest sta-
<br /> condominiums plunged 127 per- How bad is that? Not so bad, tistics:The only real bust under-
<br /> cent across the country, com- but it's still important: Median- way nationally—and in many lo-
<br /> hed square feet pared �Tith the same period the priee decreases have been un- cal markets—is in sales volume, I
<br /> 1 stone fireplace,a year before. usual events in recent years.The� not prices or property values. I
<br /> cellence,763-47g- You might have wondered:Is signal that something negative is The quarterly numbers could '
<br /> this the long-predicted popping underway in the marketplace: hardly be mare dramatic: Sales '
<br /> - '3 of the housing-boom bubble or But given the unprecedented in Nevada plunged 38 per- '
<br /> ,�, ; � �,� cX , the begiiuung of an extended pe- run-ups inreal estate prices dur- cent;.Arizona, 26; Florida, 34.2; ;
<br /> ���� ;�� ,�t'���'°�' riod of eroding values in Ameri- ing the boom pears,plus near-re- California,"28.6; and metropoli- I
<br /> ��"` ��` ¢>"�' can home real estafe? How bad' cord low mortgage rates fueling tan Washington,D.C.,L5 percent. !
<br /> '" �; _ ' `• � could it get in the months ahead? those fires;who is really shocked All of these areas were hot spots �
<br /> "` And what might that mean for by a 1.2 percent decline? during the boom years, and all i
<br /> ��: � the equity I've got in the home Something else that didn't et of them saw si '
<br /> � ' ' Iown? ` �a lot of attention m the news re� ages of sales to investos. The �
<br /> g gn�ficant ercent
<br /> ' Before considerin those ues- . y �
<br /> ,� �: _ . g q ports:If you exainine the 148 met- also were leaders m loan pro- -
<br /> ., . . . ;.
<br /> �.,.,� t�ons,it's important to focus pre- ropolitan markets covered by the grams that allowed buyers to ac- �
<br /> � __ i � c�sely on the statistical data that NAR survey,you fmd that median quire houses they couldn't af- '
<br /> drew all the sobering news cov- prices in 102 of them actually in- ford if they had to pay tradition- �
<br /> � � ,
<br /> � � �,a erage.The tliird-quarter median creased,45 declined, arid one= al monthl costs. �
<br /> �.y�.�+s� �� �, . . - --. . Y ,_ ;
<br /> , �;,�,�. prices and sales numbers were high-cost San Jose — remauied But if home sales are down
<br /> � ,,�^� :;�, _ _generaied irom iocai, state and flat.In other words,in 69 percent so dramatically, why aren't me- �
<br /> � , % regional data collected by the of the'local markets where medi- dian prices down more than L2 '
<br /> � National Association of Realtors :an rices chan ed ear to ear, ? �
<br /> '" P g Y y percent. The answer is that ab- I
<br /> �.,.�.�,�; (N P).�e association has been the directional arrow was up,and sent severe reversals in nation-
<br /> �' '�� com ilin these statrstics smce in 30.6 percent the arrow point- al or local economies, housing
<br /> �� f' 1981 in the case of housing sales ed down. • -
<br /> �� 'rt ' prices and values move glacial-
<br /> �. ��, , sr� ` ; and since 1982 for prices. Some of the median price ly in retreat. Most home seIlers
<br /> �'"'Y` Although the realry association um s were sur risin 1 hi
<br /> .�a.�e_,_ . , .
<br /> 7 P P g Y �: in stable local economies aren't
<br /> might be viewed as having an ax Seattle (up by 14.6 percent),Salt forced to sell if they don't get.-the
<br /> to grind,its quarterly reports on Lake City (19.2 percent); Beau- price they want; they can post-
<br /> teveland neigh- median prices and sales general- mont, Texas (12.9 percent), and pone the sale until market con-
<br /> ors,security sys- ly are viewed as authoritative by' Portland,Ore.Vancouver,Wash. ditions improve.
<br /> tchinson,Unity economists and are cited by the (12.3 percent). Some of the most That's what you're seeing right
<br /> federal government. populous metropolitan markets now:Sales volumes in the frothi-
<br /> The quarterly pricing data, saw,net gains, including New est markets have tanked.But the
<br /> however, do not deal with hous- York-northem New Jersey (up statistical fact remains: Median
<br /> ing values — the appreciation 3.6 percent), Chicago (1.7 per- prices in 70 percent of the na-
<br /> or depreciation rates for homes cent),Los Angeles (�.2 percent}, tion's metropolitari areas are still
<br /> located in specifc markers. e San h�-�toni� i6.4 percent), San growing,and are iiiee�p to contin-
<br /> rlFev.2^—; �overnment agency, the Office Francisco (3 percent} �d��a- ue to d�se.
<br /> J�""° of Federal Housir_g Er_�� r '
<br /> V tarnricP �alr�1�,:� (2 R Airl
<br /> �..,�
<br /> #; � -- Oversi��t,produces those-quar- W"ithout questian,�ere were Distributed by the Washingion Post Wrii-
<br /> �-, �,gg%a- j, terly nilDlbeTS. - . S1baI11f1CdIIt G�?ClllleS lII II1aJOr ers Group.Kenneth Harney is a nation-
<br /> � �i The NAR pricing statistics fo- metropolitan markets as WeIl: aily syndicated real estate columnist.
<br /> $�g`� cus instead on the median price Sarasota,Fla.(down 9.4percent), He can be reached atthe Washington
<br /> of existing homes sold during the Miami-Fort Lauderdale (5.6 per- Post wrrters crouP,iiso istn st.Nw.,
<br /> previous quarter. The median is cent),Boston(4.3 percent),PTOV- Washington,DC 20071-9200 or by e-mail at
<br /> ' � the rilidpoint,with as manyhome idence,R:I. (5.5 percent),metro- kenharney�a earthlink.net.
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