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"Forecasts" Analysis <br /> There is no issue regarding the `employment' forecasts. The issue is in the `population' and <br /> `households' forecasts. The differences between the City projections and the MC forecasts are <br /> directly attributable to the basis and philosophy used to create those predictions. MC forecasts <br /> reflect what the Met Council wants the City to be. City projections are based on the City's <br /> planned land use and zoning as expressed in the Update, and reflect a property by property <br /> analysis of future development potential, coupled with staff estimates of probable development <br /> timing. <br /> About calculating population and household numbers: <br /> "Persons per Household": Population projection numbers are simply created by m�ltiplying the expected number of <br /> households by the expected number of persons per household ("pph"). The number of persons per household in <br /> Orono as reported in the 1970 Federal Census was 3.16; it dropped to 2.99 in 1980; dropped to 2.79 in 1990; and <br /> dropped again to 2.73 in the 2000 Census. Met Council projections for Orono in 2010 are 2.59 pph, while Orono's <br /> projection is slightly lower due to the relatively high number of 1-2 person households expected to move into the <br /> condos and townhomes in the next year or two. For 2020 and 2030, both MC and Orono projections are based on a <br /> further reduction to approximately 2.40 �ph. <br /> "Households" vs "Dwellin� Units": A household is defined for the purposes of the Comp Plan as an occupied <br /> dwelling unit. A dwelling unit is a building or portion of a building intended for occupancy as separate living <br /> quarters, with cooking, sleeping and sanitary facilities provided within the dwelling unit. At any given time, perhaps <br /> 95% of Orono's dwelling units are occupied, and the remainder are vacant; therefore, in the CMP Update the <br /> number of existing or projected households is always smaller than the projected number of dwelling units. <br /> As noted above, the table in Met Council's letter contains data for City numbers that differs from <br /> that in our CMP Update submittal. Here is what I believe is a correct table based on the info that <br /> was in the submitted Update: <br /> Com arison of Council System Statement and Ci 's U date Forecasts <br /> ' �Census Council City Council City Council City � <br /> IUnsewered 2000 O10 010 020 2020 030 2030 <br /> ,Population N/A 2500 �2350 �500 2070 '2500 I 2250 ; <br /> -- --- - -- <br /> IHouseholds I N/A �,944 ��9-58 910 I1000 ��b-5 860 �1080 ��; 93-5 930 i <br /> ��'Employment �� N/A ��0 '�,3� 0 � 40 � �0 40 I <br /> __ _ _ — — �___ 1_— _ — __ -- -----� ___ � <br /> Census Council City Council �City Council City ' <br /> ISewered � 000 i2010 2010 � 2020� 2020 030 2030 <br /> Population NA ���800 5800 7000 ! 6580 17300 �� 67�0 <br /> IHouseholds NA 2 56 I�4� 2240 2950 ; �43 2740'3020 1 ?�?�2820 <br /> �m lo ment � A �1230 1335 I 1420 � 1515 1500 1595 � <br /> P Y ---- ---- _-� -- - — -- � -- '' <br /> _-- - - __ _ _ _ <br /> � Census Council City Council City �Council �' City ' <br /> �'Total '2000 2010 2010 �2020 2020 2030 2030 <br /> 'Population ,7538 �8300 '81�0 '9500 � 86�0 9800 9000 <br /> -- --- -— --— _ _ <br /> ;Households 2766 3200 '�-�-9-3 3150 3950 �9 3600 4100 �83750 <br /> mployment �1110 '�1230 ,1370 1420 ; 1555 �1500 i 1635 <br /> Review of Met Council Comp Plan Initial Response Page 4 of 17 <br /> August 28, 2009 <br />